Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
Videophones are ready for business
CNet has an article on the "plunging" prices of videophone systems, heralding a drop to under $500.
These are hybrid phone systems that wed old phone system technology with video, in an attempt to create a bridge between conventional phone systems and Internet-based protocols.
I would not spend any time or money on these systems. There are already much less expensive all-IP based systems. I routinely use an inexpensive but high quality iSight camera with the very good videophone software that Apple provides free on every Macintosh.
For the cost of one station using these hybrid systems, you could buy four iSight cameras and give them to three friends, family, or business colleagues--if you and your associates use Macs.
Right about now, some of you are about to click to some other site, having little patience with Mac users. The larger point is this: what's available now on the Mac will be available on the Wintel platform in a year or so. I'm not trying to argue Macs are better, I'm trying to illustrate that these relatively expensive hybrid videophone systems won't last long in the face of less expensive and easier to use alternatives.
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County Administrator: Broadband is necessary
In the Northern Neck of Virginia, broadband is being viewed (appropriately) as a critical economic development issue.
One of the most interesting items in the article is near the end, where an independent ISP that has been reselling DSL via Verizon infrastructure for some time is now in trouble. For a long time, Verizon said there was not enough business in the Northern Neck to justify the investment. So this independent firm sold DSL. Now that the market has been opened by its competitors, Verizon has stepped in and begun selling DSL for less that it charges for wholesale circuits to its competitors.
Verizon has every right to do that, and I don't think communities ought to waste time and effort trying to "get" telcos and cable companies to behave differently. They have to answer to shareholders, not the community.
But the article highlights clearly what communities are facing: a marketplace monopoly (rather than a regulated monopoly) in which the community has only one or two large broadband providers that are able to act in cartel-like behavior, setting prices and services options because of lack of competition. If affordable broadband is an economic development issue (and I think it is), then the community places its economic future in the hands of the big telecom providers unless the community itself makes some investments to level the playing field.
In the last paragraphk, the article quotes the county administrator of Westmoreland County, who worries about investing in the wrong technology. It's a valid concern, but it's not an excuse for doing nothing. And that issue is managed in two ways: communities need to plan for telecommunciations, just like they plan for everything else. Secondly, communities should invest in things that don't become obsolete quickly--telecom duct, fiber, tower sites, antnennas, and colocation facilities. Fear of the unknown (otherwise called ignorance) is putting the economic future of communities at risk. But ignorance is easily correctable--as I've said for nearly a decade--this is an education problem, not a technology problem.
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New group forms around fiber to the home
from a mailing list....
GROUP FORMS TO EDUCATE CONSUMERS AS FIBER-LINKED COMMUNITIES PROLIFERATE
With the number of communities linked with fiber-to-the-home rapidly growing, a new coalition has been formed to educate consumers about the benefits of optical access networks. Max R. Kipfer, founder and president of Fiber Optic Communities of the United States (FOCUS), said the group would "unite fiber-optic communities from urban, rural, and suburban settings with the aim of propelling America into the next generation of communication."
During a press briefing in Washington, FOCUS General Counsel Lawrence Freedman said one of the group's missions would be to promote the sharing of information and dissemination of strategies among communities seeking to connect homes and businesses with fiber-optic networks. "All of the best technology will be of no use if there's not the transactional structure and operative environment" that's needed, he said.
The press briefing featured presentations on fiber-optic deployments from representatives of the Utah Telecommunications Open Infrastructure Agency (UTOPIA), a government effort to build a fiber-optic network covering 14 towns in Utah; Jackson (Tenn.) Energy Authority, which has built a fiber-optic network; and Brambleton Group LLC, which is installing fiber optics in its development in Loudoun County, Va.
Link Hoewing, assistant vice president at Verizon Communications, Inc., highlighted his company's plans to install fiber to the home in 100 central offices in nine states, passing 1 million homes, by year-end, and to pass 3 million by the end of 2005. Verizon has been expediting its deployment after receiving favorable regulatory decisions on fiber-related issues, he added.
Mike Render, president of Render Vanderslice and Associates, said fiber-to-the-home deployments had "taken off in the last six months," in large part due to Verizon but also due to several new "wired communities." There are now 217 communities in the U.S. linked to fiber-optic networks, he said.
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Color iPod displays pictures
Apple has upped the ante in the portable music player world. With a half dozen other hard drive-based models trying to steal market share from Apple, the world's premiere technology innovation firm has released two new iPods today that will display digital photos on a color screen.
The iPods are available with 40 gig or 60 gig hard drives, and will store up to 25,000 high resolution color photos or up to 15,000 songs, or a combination of both. Apple has neatly solved the problem of what to do with all those photos being taken with digital cameras.
Storing your photos on your iPod as well as your desktop computer is good from another angle--it provides you with backups of your irreplaceable baby pictures. You do make backups of all your important files, don't you?
Apple has taken the iPod one step further and provided a TV-out connector so that you display slideshows on a television or LCD projector. All this comes with the original functionality of the iPod, including text note storage and viewing, games, calendar, and address book, and all in a package the size of a deck of cards. All iPods work on both Windows and Macintoshes, including the new color iPods.
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Supercomputers as economic development infrastructure
About this time last year, Virginia Tech, right here in rural Appalachia, made world news with a dirt cheap supercomputer that ranked number 3 in the world in terms of speed and processing power.
The university did some thinking out of the box and discarded the conventional approach to building supercomputers (typically using a lot of custom hardware). Instead they bought 1100 off the shelf Macintoshes, wired them together with more off the shelf hardware, and wrote a small amount of software to turn the Macs into a monster supercomputer.
Since then, the university has swapped out all the older G4 processor-based machines for much smaller Macintosh Xserve industrial servers based on the much more powerful G5 processor. The floor space needed for the machine shrunk, the heat output was reduced, and speed was increased by 19%.
I remain convinced that a regional supercomputer facility should be regarded as essential economic development infrastructure. Microenterprise businesses and other small businesses increasingly need access to supercomputing facilities, and this is no different that sewer and water was forty years ago.
The good news is that putting a supercomputer together is pretty easy. Apple will build you a turnkey G5 cluster so you don't need a research university. And for a rural community seeking an edge in the global economy, I can't think of a better calling card. A modest supercomputer facility would not cost as much as a shell building, and would be a perfect complement to a business incubator.
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We've found the killer app
All through the nineties, and especially during the dot-com silliness, hundreds if not thousands of companies talked about the "killer app." Usually those who claimed they had it were making some thinly veiled sales pitch for some proprietary piece of software that they believed would make them kings of the world.
I argued, at the time, that the killer app was email, and I still think I was right. Email is one of two things that virtually everyone does online. The other is search, and of course, the founders of Google, if not kings of the world, are now insanely rich.
But Google was never designed to be the killer app; no one was sure where search tools were going to go; they just happened. Alta Vista, the first search tool that tried to index the Web, was really started in large part to show off the power of DEC's processors, which weren't doing well in the marketplace. Alta Vista's early lead was squandered and DEC was bought out by Compaq, which killed the once powerful company, and Compaq was bought by HP. Ho hum.
Broadband connectivity has largely escaped the killer app disease, but in an odd kind of way. The broadband giants (i.e. telcos and cable companies) have pretty much failed to recognize that broadband is not that interesting unless you can do something with it. The big connectivity companies of the dot-com era (e.g. Global Crossing, UUNet, etc.) all collapsed because they utterly ignored the very sensible question, "What will people do with the bandwidth?" Consolidation in the cable business has been driven in large part by the enormous debt wracked up by cable companies trying to get broadband marketshare in advance of having even the slightest idea what people would do with it.
The killer app for broadband is going to be Voice over IP, or in simpler terms, telephone calls. We're already at a point where you can pretty much buy WORLDWIDE flat rate calling for under $40/month. Free point to point telephony software drives that cost down to zero.
We ought to stop calling the phone companies, well, phone companies. They aren't anymore, whether they like it or not. They have no choice but to become broadband companies, and just one of numerous services they offer happens to be dialtone.
In his remarks to the Voice on the Net conference in Boston on October 19th, FCC Chairman Michael Powell has called VoIP a "revolution." Powell went on to call for "bare DSL" access, meaning you can buy DSL service without being forced to buy bundled telephone service.
He went on to say something even more remarkable by outlining what he calls the Internet Consumer Freedoms:
- Freedom to Access Content: Consumers should have access to their choice of legal content;
- Freedom to Use Applications: Consumers should be able to run applications of their choice;
- Freedom to Attach Personal Devices: Consumers should be permitted to attach any devices they choose to the connection in their homes; and
- Freedom to Obtain Service Plan Information: Consumers should receive meaningful information regarding their service plans.
The Consumer Freedoms that Powell outlines are breathtakingly simple yet incredibly important. They underscore the need for communities and organizations to have a competitive marketplace for broadband services--monopoly providers have no incentive to meet Powell's requirements.
It is exciting that Powell has laid this out so plainly. What's going on? Well, another part of his remarks calls for exclusive Federal regulation of Voice over IP. If the alternative is a mish mash of fifty different sets of state rules that are likely heavily influenced by corporate contributions, that may be the right direction, as long as Federal regulation is as light as possible. It appears Powell understands this.
download Michael Powell VoIP remarks).
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Insourcing: Is your community ready?
Outsourcing of U.S. jobs to other countries, depending upon who you believe, is wrecking the country or no big deal. Based on data developed by business experts like Peter Drucker, who says three U.S. jobs are created for everyone that is outsourced, I'm inclined to believe that it is not a major concern as a national issue.
As a local issue, if your area has been losing jobs, it's certainly a big deal, hence the confusion about outsourcing--it is a matter of geography. Nationally, we are creating jobs. But in some localities, real jobs are being lost and workers and their families affected materially.
The real question is what to do about it. Hence, insourcing. Insourcing is looking through the other end of the telescope. Instead of bemoaning the loss of jobs, take a look at insourcing, or the jobs and companies that are coming to the United States. If Drucker is right that 3 jobs are being created for every job that leaves, then the real opportunity is to figure out to be attractive to those international companies coming to the United States.
This site is a gem, and worth bookmarking. The Organization for International Investment has compiled state by state statistics on insourcing. In Virginia for example, I found that there are 146,000 insourced jobs, which is a 25% increase over the past five years. In Illinois, 268,400 jobs that represent a 39% increase. In New Hampshire, it's a stunning 38,400 workers with a 43% increase over five years. Insourced jobs provide more than 7% of all jobs in New Hampshire, and the state ranks 4th in the country in terms of per capita insourced jobs.
How do you get insourced jobs? You can bet that those international companies are relying heavily on the Web to do their research. Your community, government, and economic development Web sites need to be attractive, vibrant, well-designed, and professional. They need to tell a good story. One suggestion: create "Welcome" pages in some of the dominant languages of trade (Spanish, French, German, Japanese, and Chinese) would be a good start. It's not expensive, and it will project that your community embraces the global economy.
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BPL: Electric company says no to being ISP
Here is an interesting article in the New York Times (registration required) about an experiment by Con Ed, the big New York City area electric provider, with Broadband Over Powerlines (BPL).
The BPL trial is not particularly noteworthy. I'll bet most of the electric utilities in the country have bought some equipment and are playing around with it. No, what's worth mentioning is that Con Ed has said, "Our aim is definitely not to become an Internet service provider."
Yes! That's exactly right. Con Ed has partnered with EarthLink, which will be the ISP. Con Ed is simply going to provide the transport layer, and the electric company is going to do what it does best, which is to go around and bury cable. They are doing what they know how to do, and will make a buck leasing their transport system (the electric lines) to someone else, who knows the Internet access business. Even better, Earthlink has not been trying to capture the content side of the broadband business, which the cable and telephone companies would like to do. Aside from a modest portal site, EarthLink is also sticking to the knitting.
If BPL becomes a force in the marketplace (and the jury is still out on the economics of that because of the amount of equipment needed to retrofit an electric service area), it will most likely succeed if the electric utilities do what Con Ed is doing--provide the transport layer and partner with others on access and service.
And thre is a lesson there for communities that want to jumpstart broadband--provide the transport layer and let the private sector deliver the access and services. Pay for the community investment by being the "carrier's carrier" and have just a few bulk customers (the access and service providers). It's a nice, clean business model that does not compete with the private sector and does not re-monopolize the marketplace (by creating a new public monopoly for broadband).
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The Smart-Aleck House, Version 3.0
It got chilly all of a sudden; someone was pulling the covers off the bed. I sat up groggily and looked around. My wife was still sound asleep on the other side of the bed; it was not likely that she would notice anyway, since she tends to sleep with the covers half off in the first place. It was the whirring noise that finally caught my attention; Marvin, the robo-butler, was down at the bottom of the bed, slowly and methodically dragging the comforter off. He seemed to be getting a bit confused, because the covers had flopped over top of him, covering his optical sensors.
I yanked them away from him and tried to go back to sleep, but even more commotion started up downstairs. It sounded like every appliance in the house had come on, all at once. Imagine, if you will, the coffee grinder, the disposal, the dishwasher, the vacuum cleaner, the dryer, and the washing machine, all going at once. I was waking up now, and threw my legs over the side of the bed, stepped into my slippers and housecoat, and headed downstairs. Marvin trailed behind me, muttering under his breath, his little wheel motors whining. I looked longingly at my wife, who was still sound asleep.
After I shut everything off, and got the baby out of her crib (she thought it was hilarious to have the vacuum cleaner driving in circles on her rug at 6:30 in the morning), I poured a cup of java from the Coff-o-Mat and sat down for a little chat with Harry, the house computer.
"Harry, what the heck is going on?"
"Well, Dave, you wouldn't get up this morning when I tried to wake you."
"Harry, it's Saturday morning and we were out late last night. You knew that, because you made me review the chore list at half past twelve."
"I guess I just forgot, Dave. It won't happen again."
"Alright, I'll forget about it. Now what's for breakfast?"
"Well, Dave, how about two scrambled eggs and a piece of whole wheat toast?"
"Sounds good."
"Coming right up, Dave."
I harrumphed, then started to get up to go look for the paper.
"Dave?"
"Yea, Harry, what do you want?"
"Dave, I'm very sorry about the incident this morning. I want you to know that Marvin had nothing to do with it; I made him pull the covers off you."
I knew Marvin had nothing to do with it; Marvin was a motorized idiot that worked off a radio link with Harry, and really was not capable of much without direction from the house computer. If the house computer went down for any length of time, all Marvin could do was find his way back to his power dock so his batteries would not run down in the middle of the yard, or somewhere equally inconvenient. Marvin, despite his diminutive four foot stature, weighed a hefty two hundred and fifty pounds. A bad circuit board had left him stranded in the back yard once, and it had taken me and three neighbors to heave him up the back steps into the house so we could re-charge him.
"Harry, I said forget about it. I have."
"Okay, Dave."
I stopped and wondered for a second if Harry would or could forget it. Harry was the latest thing in automated house control, and there were still a few things the manufacturers did not seem to have a handle on. One of them was exactly how his neural network main control program worked. It was self-modifying, so Harry tended to be slightly unpredictable at times.
I stepped outside and wandered up the driveway to get the newspaper. When I got back to the house I nearly broke my nose on the front door; it was locked.
"Open the door." Nothing. I cleared my throat and tried again; maybe there were cobwebs in the microphone/speaker grill.
"Open the door." Nothing. I rattled the handle; the door was definitely locked. Jeez, it was cold out. I was standing outside in thirty-seven degree weather in my PJs, freezing my patooties off.
"Harry, open the door, please." Harry finally responded to my plea.
"Whom may I ask is calling?" Whom may I ask is calling? I started to wonder about Harry's circuits, and I was losing my patience to boot.
"Harry, this is Dave. Open the darn door--I'm freezing out here."
"I'm very sorry, sir, but Dave is not here. He has stepped out momentarily." I was really getting confused now. Not only had Harry started talking like a bad movie's idea of an English butler, he did not seem to know who I was. I lost it at this point.
"I'm Dave, you stupid excuse for silicon. Let me in."
"I'm very sorry, but Dave's not here. Please leave a name and number, and I will have him call you when he returns.
At this point I took a swipe at the door with my foot, but missed and bashed my big toe on the door frame. I screamed in pain, hopped around for a bit, then started to hobble across the lawn to the neighbor's house to call my wife to let me in. For all I knew, she was still asleep. I got about half way across the lawn when the in-ground sprinkler system started up; I was caught in the cross-fire of four high-pressure impulse sprinkler heads, and quicker than you can say gallium arsenide, I was soaked to the skin. Just as suddenly, the water turned off.
I did manage to get the rest of the way over the neighbor's house without incident, and thankfully, Mike and Mary Grace were already up and eating breakfast. I recounted my tale to them while I dried off. Mike lent me an old shirt and a pair of sweat pants, and after I had a cup of coffee, I dialed up our number. I should have guessed, but Harry answered, not my wife. Among other things, when I purchased Harry, I had bought the answering machine interface, which enabled Harry to take messages when we were out of the house or away from the phone.
"Hello, this is the Matthews residence. The Matthews are not home right now, but I would be most pleased to take your message for them." Harry was still impersonating the English butler.
"Harry, this is Dave. Let me talk to Terrie."
"I'm sorry, sir. Dave and Terrie are not home right now. Could I take a message?"
"Harry, this is Dave, you stupid machine. Wake up Terrie and tell her I'm on the phone."
"I'm very sorry. If you continue be abusive, sir, I will have to disconnect you and alert the phone police." The phone police? What the hell was he talking about? I began to wonder if he had suffered a power surge that had burnt out his circuits. I hung up. I borrowed a screw driver, a hammer, and an umbrella from Mike, and went back to the house. The sprinklers came on, but I was ready this time; I had already extended the umbrella. My shoes got a little wet, but that's all.
I went around to the back of the house, and began to jimmy the lock on the back door. It was a wooden frame, so I figured I could just chisel out part of the jamb and pop the latch. There was no deadbolt on this door, and I was glad now I had never gotten around to putting one on. Harry was close by, though. He had a speaker and optical sensor on the porch.
"What are you doing, Dave." Aha. Progress at last; Harry had dropped the phony butler stuff, and he did know who I was after all.
"Harry, I'm coming in, and when I do, I'm turning you off, permanently. Your guarantee hasn't expired yet, and I'm getting my money back."
"Dave, I don't think that's such a good idea. Why don't you sit down and talk about it for a while? I'll have Marvin bring you a cup of nice hot coffee and a cinnamon bun."
"Harry, it's cold out here, you squirted water all over me, you pretended not to know who I am, and wouldn't let me talk to my wife. Go to hell."
"Dave, you really sound upset about this. I'm very sorry it happened, and I can assure you that it won't happen again. I've just been a little under the weather, but I'm diagnosing my circuits right now." I was still working on the lock; it was harder to jimmy than I thought.
"Hold it right there, buster. Drop the tools and raise your arms slowly above your head, then turn around where we can see you." Sheesh. Harry had apparently called the cops, and here I was, in old burglar clothes, my hands full of burglar tools, trying to break the latch off the door. I turned around slowly.
"Officer, I can explain everything....."
Well, I did, actually. I convinced the two officers to walk over to Mike and Mary Grace's to confirm my story, and they did, but Harry turned the sprinklers on on the way over, so they were mad as all heck about the whole thing, and went back to their car and got a big crowbar they use in emergencies to get people out of cars in a hurry if there was an accident or something.
We used the crowbar on the back door and got in real fast then, and proceeded directly to the basement, where Harry "resided", and I said, gee isn't that a rabid skunk in the corner there, next to the computer, and both officers said yes I believe it is and don't you know they fired at the poor sick animal several times and missed every time, accidentally hitting Harry in several vital spots, though. We all looked vigorously for the rabid skunk, but he must of got away, and we all said, gee, too bad about the computer, and we all nodded our heads, yea, too bad.
Terrie never even heard the gunshots. She had slept through the whole thing. The baby was fine; Harry, while I was outside, put the Food-o-matic on auto-dispense, and the kitchen floor was filled with cookies, on which the baby was happily nibbling.
The Happy Home Robot people came a week later and took everything away without too many questions, although I got some funny looks when I told about the rabid skunk. They sent my money back, though, so I think they must of known about the problems with that particular model. I'm not much inclined towards smart houses anymore. I even got rid of the VCR after that; the little blinking "12:00" really started to get on my nerves.
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Will smart homes really be smart?
Here's an interesting note about an industry drive to make our homes "smart."
I wrote an article fifteen years ago about this, which I've posted in a separate item. The IT industry is drving the smart home phenomenon in part because it's "cool," and in part because it will increase profits. A very small part of smart home stuff will actually make things more convenient, but I remain skeptical.
If you buy into the smart home concept, it means replacing virtually every powered device in your home--coffe makers, washers, driers, refrigerators, stereos, and so on. A lot of money. And for what? So you can turn on your coffee maker by sending a Bluetooth signal from your Palm Pilot while you are still in bed? And then worry constantly you are going to turn the coffeemaker on by accident and burn the house down. No thanks.
I've had some ABus equipment for several years, but have never quite gotten around to installing it, because of the complexity of designing and installing the wiring and room controls. ABus is an industry standard for being able to distribute music from a single source to a bunch of different rooms in the house. You can control the volume in each room separately, and can even use your remote controls to change radio channels or switch to a different CD if you have a multi-CD player.
But it always seems like an enormous effort to get it all working, compared to just sticking one of the now very small stereos on a shelf in the room and forgetting about it.
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