Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
IBM has sold their PC business to a Chinese firm. There has been much news coverage about this. They sold it for just over $1 billion, which is a paltry sum, considering the global market.
Most of the news coverage has been about whether or not it is a "good deal" for IBM. The conventional wisdom has been saying it makes sense for IBM to get out of a cutthroatl, commodity market with razor-thin margins.
But I see something different in the sale. What I see is a company that, like much of the rest of the IT industry, is intellectually bankrupt. It's almost beyond belief that IBM, with some of the brightest people in the industry on its staff, could not come with anything new, different, or interesting to differentiate IBM pcs from a cheap clone.
PCs are horrible devices. They work poorly, are virus-prone, are hard to fix and hard to maintain, and make simple things bizarrely complex much of the time. IBM could not come with a single thing that would make the PC better? This does not bode well for the American IT industry, for it IBM couldn't do it, with the resources the company has, who else will? Gateway can't. Dell won't--Dell makes it money selling stuff cheaper than everyone else, so it won't spend a nickel on research and development.
Microsoft is still two years away from the mythical Longhorn software upgrade to Windows. Longhorn has been in development for so many years now, it's almost a joke.
The only hardware innovation is coming from Apple. Apple has been delivering a major software upgrade every year for years, and issues minor upgrades almost every other month. Apple's hardware, year after year, wins design awards for it's good looks and functionality. Apple constantly strives to make its equipment simpler to use--the new G5 iMac requires, in one configuration, just one cable--the power cable--to be fully functional. That's right, you take it out of the box, plug it in the wall, and the machine is ready for use. And Apple's hardware is now cheaper, on a feature by feature basis, than Wintel pcs.
Open Source software continues to make significant inroads, despite Microsoft's weak claims about quality and support issues (a bit of the pot calling the kettle black). With companies like IBM throwing in the towel, I see it as the beginning of the end for the Wintel platform. Lack of innovation and overpriced, virus-prone software will continue to drive users to Open Source alternatives, which are more virus resistant, are being upgraded and refined continuously, and are increasingly becoming simpler to install, which has been a major hindrance with a lot of Open Source software in the past.
What does this mean for communities? Invest wisely, be cautious of the conventional wisdom, and look closely at alternative platforms and software that may be less expensive and easier to use.
I'm appalled at my own computer. The box itself is fine, sitting on the floor next to my desk, but the complete rat's nest of wires next to it is just awful. Counting power cables that power numerous peripheral devices, there are more than thirty cables that are needed just to type an email or print a piece of paper.
But things are changing slowly. As computers become a necessity of daily life, the geek design ethic (that is to say, no design, pure function) is slowly giving way to technology that is largely hidden from view. The Apple G5 iMac has been described by many reviewers as the "most beautiful computer ever made." The G5 iMac effectively has hidden the computer by concealing it entirely in the LCD screen. No boxes, no sprawl of cables, no ugly little speakers cluttering up desk space. If you buy the wireless keyboard and mouse option, the G5 iMac is completely functional with just ONE cable--the power cord.
The PaperHub is obviously inspired by the new iMac, and its styling is clearly derivative, but it would look just as good on the desk of a Windows user as a Mac user. It clever conceals a FireWire and USB hub in the form factor of a paper tray. It cuts one power supply out where you would otherwise have two, and puts all the cables in the back, behind the tray itself, where you don't have to look at them. It's simply beautiful.
Glenn Reynolds, better know as Instapundit, has an article on Tech Central Station about the emerging trend of using public WiFi hotspots as business meeting places.
I wrote about this a while back, but Reynolds makes some interesting points, including this one about the effect on the real estate market:
"On the other hand, offices are expensive. I've noticed a lot of small business people in my area giving up their offices, and having meetings in public places -- Starbucks, Borders, the Public Library, and so on. In fact, a real estate agent recently told me that the small-office commercial real estate market is actually suffering as a result of so many people making this kind of move."
Economic developers, planners, and zoning commissions need to take note--the traditional definition of the commercial business zone is long gone. The industrial and business park is changing as we speak. And residential neighborhoods are filled with businesspeople working out of their homes.
Communities can ignore these trends, but do so at their peril, especially when public funds are at stake for obsolete concepts like standalone business incubators, industrial parks out in the woods, and retail on Main Street.
"Put your thinking cap on" may acquire real meaning if the brain beanie these researchers have developed comes to pass. It could be a major breakthrough for those with serious physical impairments, but it is easy to imagine all sorts of other uses as well. Unfortunately, I keep thinking of applications related to improved ways to change channels--with a "channel beanie," you would not even have to pick up the remote and stab a button...you could just think the channel changed.
This CNet article describes what corporate America wants from its workforce. Surprise--it's not necessarily tech-savvy youths with oversize thumbs from playing video games and keying text messages on cellphones the size of chiclets.
What corporate America wants is workers who can read and write--especially writing. Our kids are growing up and entering the workforce without the vaguest notion of how to compose a complete, grammatically correct sentence, and it's driving bosses everywhere crazy.
Email is a particular problem, as the informal style of email messages has encouraged ever more casual communication, to the point of being incomprehensible, if you look at the examples of corporate "writing" included in the article.
This reinforces the article I mentioned a couple of days ago about the study that showed that kids that spend a lot of time on the computer are dumber. Playing video games, typing code in instant messenger (r u ther, lol), and surfing the Web is not preparing our kids for the workforce.
Step one is for parents and educators to take control and stop repeating the fallacy that, "Our kids know a lot more about technology than we do." The fact that my daughter can rack up a much higher score on Super Mario Brothers does not make her smarter or more tech savvy than me. Nor do high scores on video games or the ability to send text messages on cellphones prepare them to enter the Knowledge Economy workforce.
How well do the schools in your community do in preparing your youth for the Knowledge Economy? Is there a concerted effort to make sure they can read and write at appropriate grade levels. Are you holding regular meetings with economic developers, local business leaders, and school administrators to make sure the schools are emphasizing the right stuff?
A large German study of computer use in schools found that computers were overused in the early grades, and not used well enough in higher grades, like high school.
The study also found that students who spent too much time on the computer had LOWER reading and math scores. This does not surprise me, as it is entirely too easy to waste time, mostly on the Web, and parents and teachers have been too quick to assume that any time on the computer is good time.
I've had many opportunities to observe K12 technology use for a decade, and I continue to see two big problems.
Computer use in the schools is a big mess. Teachers don't get adequate training, they don't have the right equipment in the classroom (e.g. an LCD projector), they lack adequate tech support, and they don't have, most of the time, appropriate teaching materials.
I see too many parents who simply count the number of computers in the school and make the incorrect assumption that if there is a computer in the classroom, their kids are getting the appropriate instruction. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The final tragedy is that our schools are sucking huge amounts of our tax dollars for technology that is either not used at all or used in inappropriate ways. It's an outrage.
A Cnet article details a surprising study that shows Firefox users see four times FEWER ads than Internet Explorer users.
Firefox is the free Web browser that is increasingly popular with Windows users because it is faster and has fewer security problems than IE. It also apparently does a much better job of blocking pop-up ads, which may account for some of the differences between the two groups.
I had to spend a couple of days working on a Windows machine last week, using IE, and I was shocked at the number of pop-ups--it was actually difficult to get work done at times. I've been rather spoiled, I decided, from Safari, Apple's browser, and Firefox. Both do a pretty good job at blocking pop-up ads; so well, apparently, that I had begun to take it for granted.
Firefox is free, and can be downloaded and installed easily.
According to a CNet article, BellSouth plans to provide higher capacity broadband to most of its customer base in the next five years.
Video is driving the plans. The cable companies have not only captured about 75% of the broadband market, compared to the phone companies' paltry 15%, but the cable companies can offer the fabled triple play--voice, data, and video.
The phone companies are terrified. VoIP is sapping traditional landline customers all over the country, and most of those VoIP users are getting that service over cable broadband, not DSL broadband. So the telephone companies want to offer the same thing--voice, data, and video--but their weak point is the 100 year old design of the telephone infrastructure. Most phone users in this country are still getting their dial tone the way Alexander Graham Bell designed it, but those copper cables won't haul video all the way from phone company video head ends. So BellSouth has decided to go with fiber to the node (i.e. fiber to the neighborhood), and deliver the first mile (last mile) connection over copper.
This may sound like great news, but most communities are still stuck with the same two monopoly service providers they had twenty years ago; that's not choice, and two oligarchies aren't likely to drive prices down. Continuing to overbuild private networks does not level the playing field and will not attract real competition.
The USA Today had a story yesterday (page 11D) about the PillCam, a screening device that you swallow. While it travels through your body, it sends video and still images back to the doctor. The "pill," which is not much bigger than an oversize vitamin capsule, is much easier to take (literally) than an endoscopy, which requires sedation and the insertion of a tube down the throat.
It gets patients in and out of the doctor's office more quickly and with less risk. An endoscopy might still be required as a followup if the doctor decides a tissue sample is needed.
I have a great idea for a reality TV show. It's a bit like Fear Factor, where the contestants have to eat bugs, but they also have to swallow the PillCam, so we can see in real time what the little critters do once in your, um, stomach...8^).
Have a great weekend.
It's not being covered much in the news, but you can be sure that the demonstrations against the stolen election in Ukraine is being organized in large part via the Internet.
Over the long term (fifty years from now), the real impact of the Internet, looking back, may be the changes it has brought to politics and nations. Short of cutting off Internet access entirely, it is no longer possible for dictators, despots, and thugs to keep people from learning what is going on in the rest of the world. Nor can they keep their own people from passing the truth from one to another. If the only thing the Internet does is help spread freedom and democracy, that's enough.