IP TV as the new dot-com bubble

AlGore's Current TV, a cable channel with limited distribution, has announced a partnership with Yahoo to create four new broadband channels.

More than half of U.S. Internet users now have broadband connections, so the marketplace is big enough to support investments in broadband video programming. But my prediction is that IP TV ventures of various kinds will become the new dot-com bubble, with thousands of get-rich-quick video producers coming up with a million programming schemes, all predicated on the shaky notion that they are going to siphon off 1% of Google's ad revenue.

Like the original dot-com bubble, if you have ten thousand schemers all claiming to be going after 1% of the market, the math does not add up. A great strength of the Internet is the low barrier to entry if you have a neat idea. A great weakness of the Internet is a low barrier to entry if you have a neat idea and otherwise poorly-conceived plans and financing. We're going to see hundreds and hundreds of announcements of new broadband "channels," and most of them will die a quick death. In the long run, quality always wins, if you can stay in the race long enough to let the weak drop by the wayside.