Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
Will UMA save the cellular industry?
In a perfect world, we would throw our cellular phones away and move as fast as possible to an all Internet wireless system, using VoIP to make phone calls and the same packet-based IP transport for all other kinds of data--one kind of transport system for everything--voice, video, Web, you name it.
But infrastructure usually trumps good ideas. We already have a vast cellular infrastructure that works pretty well, at the expense of having a separate wireless road system for phone calls--one that does not work with the more versatile Internet road system. And it is hard to imagine how you just throw away all the billions already invested and invest billions more for a new wireless Internet everywhere.
But the cellphone manufacturers may have cracked this problem with UMA, or [link no longer available] Unlicensed Mobile Access. Using a single wireless phone, users can use it to make calls when near a WiFi hotspot OR on the conventional cellular system. Even more interesting, you can do so seamlessly. You can start a call on the cellular network, walk into a WiFi hotspot, and the phone will switch to the Internet seamlessly while you are talking.
There are a lot of issues to be worked out, including pricing (it's cheaper to carry voice calls over WiFi/Internet), but it gives the cellular companies a roadmap for making the transition to an all Internet road system gracefully. We'll see more and more phones coming standard with WiFi, which will also make it easier to use our phones and PDAs to check mail, surf the Web, watch movies, and stream music.
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South Korea commits $830 million to broadband
South Korea continues to be far more visionary than the United States when thinking about broadband and how it should be used. The city of Seoul, South Korea's largest city, has committed $830 million to the u-Seoul project. The 'u' stands for 'ubiquitious.'
The money will be used for a variety of projects, including high speed connections to all schools, government offices, and health facilities; high speed broadband for entertainment, culture, and sports facilities; and for public transportation and environmental monitoring.
While the Koreans are putting substantial investments into technology that will transform their economy, we are still debating whether broadband should be 200 kilobits/second (the FCC definition) or if we should jump things up to the 1-2 megabits/second favored by the telephone and cable companies (which is about 1% of South Korea's broadband target).
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Macs run Windows
As I predicted a couple of weeks ago, Apple has officially announced that the company's new Intel-based Macintosh computers can run Windows. I thought it might take as long as a year for Apple to get around to offering this, but Apple often manages to surprise everyone.
The new Intel Macs are extremely fast, and are performing very well against existing Windows machines. Few current Mac users are likely to spend much time running Windows, but a lot of Windows users may be more willing to buy Apple hardware knowing they have an easy transition. Apple has more up its sleeve, though. It has already announced the next version of OS X will be able to run Windows and OS X concurrently (the current Boot Camp software requires a compute restart to switch between the two operating systems). There is further speculation that OS X 10.5 will not only run Windows and OS X side by side, but will also support Linux at the same time. Apple would be the only hardware manufacturer that would give customers the option to run whatever operating environment they choose, making everything much more interesting. Dell and HP are gnashing their teeth right now. Bill Gates probably is not sure what to do...in the short run, Microsoft will sell more copies of Windows. In the long term, many Windows users will be tempted to switch to OS X. Either way, Apple wins.
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The deconstruction of AT&T
With the proposed sale of Lucent to the French firm Alcatel, the twenty-two year deconstruction of AT&T is complete. Although SBC has kept the AT&T name, the "new" AT&T is really a different beast than the "old" AT&T.
Lucent was born from the ashes of AT&T Technologies, which was born from the ashes of Western Electric. Western Electric was the manufacturing arm of Ma Bell, and made the best telephone and network equipment in the world for many decades. The design standard at Western Electric was that its equipment should have no more than one hour of downtime every forty years (not a typo). That standard was achieved regularly, as much of AT&T's equipment had no downtime at all for forty year periods.
Western Electric played a quiet but critically important role in the winning of World War II, in partnership with the other old AT&T flagship, Bell Labs. The two units designed and engineered all kinds of electric and electronic equipment for the military, and the relationship with the U.S. government has continued to the present. Many of the most sophisticated military systems have been designed and built by AT&T--and many of them are so secret that few are aware of them. Indeed, one of the issues surrounding the sale will be the acquisition of those research and manufacturing facilities that produce equipment for the government, and whether or not ownership by a foreign company is an issue.
Lucent's downfall was a failure to recognize that the Internet was going to fundamentally change telephony. While other companies poured money into packet-based network equipment in the mid and late nineties, Lucent doggedly stuck to making switched telephone equipment as the mainstay of its of business. The company did have IP-based products, but failed to market them properly. In the end, the old Ma Bell arrogance of senior leadership undid the entire company.
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Apple announces purchase of GM's Delphi unit
Cupertino, CA (4/1/06)
On the 30th anniversary of the founding of Apple computer, the company unleashed a bombshell on the financial markets with the announcement that the company had inked an agreement to purchase General Motor's troubled Delphi unit. Delphi makes car radios for the entire GM product line, and also manufactures a wide variety of other automotive parts and accessories.
Delphi declared bankruptcy yesterday in Federal court, clearing the way for its new owner to fire the entire union employee base. Apple Computer also announced that beginning in 2007, every GM car would have a built in iPod dock as well as an option to have a full Macintosh computer. Apple noted that with many new cars sporting a 7" color LCD panel that displays a variety of information, including maps and even a movie player, adding a computer just makes sense.
Steve Jobs, the CEO of Apple, said, "This is the next evolution in the automobile. As carmakers add more and more electronic features to cars, it is actually cheaper just to add a full blown computer to the car rather than write custom software for each feature." Apple's top executive went on to explain that WiFi networking would be fully integrated. "When you park you car next to your house, you can immediately download a full set of iTunes music, television shows, and movies to your car. This is what our customers have been telling us they wanted."
Jobs went on to describe a family preparing for a long trip. "OS X is already multitasking, so in a family car with the optional headrest LCD panels for the backseat, Dad could be using the Mac's Garmin-enabled GPS software to find the shortest route to DisneyWorld, Mom can be listening to her favorite Josh Groban CD, and the kids in the back seat can be playing Nanosaur II--all using a single Mac with OS X's great ease of use."
Although some analysts at the announcement were initially stunned, they broke into excited chatter once they realized that with millions of Macs being installed into GM cars, Apple's computer market share could triple over the next couple of years. One analyst seemed to "get it." "Apple's marketshare has increased substantially since the introduction of the iPod, and the "iPod halo" really has sold a lot of computers for the company. This is completely logical. Car buyers who might never have taken a second look at a Macintosh computer for the home or office will discover what a terrific system it is in their car, and this will lead to more desktop and laptop Mac sales." Another analyst said the wireless networking and fully integrated iTunes support was "brilliant."
With the typical Jobs flourish of, "...oh, and just one more thing..." the CEO also announced that Apple had purchased 10% of GM's stock, using a small portion of the computer company's huge cash hoard, which is estimated to be near $10 billion. Jobs went on to say that Apple is now GM's single biggest stockholder, and that Apple will be lending GM its vaunted Apple industrial design group to help the beleaguered car manufacturer introduce more style into the line up. Apple's chief designer, Jonathan Ive, walked out from behind a curtain at this point with a set of posters promoting the iCar, a new concept car for GM designed to appeal to the 18 to 25 age group, which is a demographic that GM has had trouble selling to for many years.
The iCar looks eerily like a Volkswagen "bug," with styling reminiscent of the very first iMacs: bright colors, extensive use of plastic trim, and a low price tag to appeal to first time car buyers. One poster even evoked a past Volkswagen advertising campaign where VW sold cars with a mountain bike strapped to the roof. The mock-up ad showed an iCar with a PowerMac computer strapped to the roof. Although Ive explained the ad was really just "a little April Fool's joke," he went on to say that Apple and GM had already had discussions about bundling desktop and laptop computers into the purchase of a GM car, with the extra cost built into the car loan.
Analysts predicted that these announcements would be a welcome boost for GM's stock price, which has lost substantial value over the past several months.
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Swedish study says cellphones may create tumor risk
A new Swedish study, via the Drudge Report, says that cellphones appear to raise the risk of brain tumors. People who appear to be at risk are those who have used cellphones for more than 2000 hours in their life, so the risk accumulates the longer that you use a cellphone. The researchers recommended hands-free use of cellphones to get them away from the head.
Cellphones use gigahertz radio frequencies that are also used in microwave ovens. Bluetooth wireless headsets also use gigahertz frequencies, so only wired headsets provide any protection.
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VW designs sensible car interface
Car maker Volkswagen has introduced a new user interface for its automobiles, called Gypsy. Some VW models have a large LCD screen in the center console, and will not only display the usual car information, but also knows how to talk to devices like an iPod or a Palm PDA.
This means you can view your iPod playlists on the big LCD screen, rather than squinting at the little iPod screen while you drive (uh, I mean while you are safely parked by the side of the road). It will also let you view your address book and calendar from your Palm or Treo on the big screen.
All this is nice, but I do think having a TV in the car is going to cause accidents. We need to realize that's what these "information systems" are that are showing up in so many cars--television, with the iPod channel, the Treo channel, the weather channel, the gas mileage channel, the DVD player channel, and so on. It's bad enough that half of America is already driving one-handed while talking on the phone, but now we'll be driving, talking on the phone, picking out music, looking up a phone number, and having the talking GPS/map system telling us to turn left NOW!
Right into a tree, because we forgot to update the map software.
But wait, it gets worse. It won't be long before a built in cellphone is added that allows you to access the Internet while driving (think OnStar on steroids). Not only will we be doing way too many things while driving, we'll be downloading the latest viruses while we surf the 'net. And then we will be buying virus protection for our cars! Hackers will be writing software that makes the radio controls increase the engine speed, window buttons will work backwards, and all the GPS maps will be inverted.
I think I am going to start looking for a nice, vintage '67 Mustang--no electronics, no GPS, no digital anything--just good old American analog driving machine. At least I'll have a virus free car.
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Fiber or Wireless--It's both!
This article notes that the only working telecom infrastructure left in New Orleans after the storm was cheap wireless. And even today, WiFi is playing a big role in the city's recovery. In areas prone to flooding, WiFi has an advantage because it is usually installed on something that is above the flood levels. If you can get power to it, it works. And there are some WiFi hotspots powered by batteries and solar power, making them even more resistant to power outages.
I was on the phone today talking with some folks about the direction of infrastructure in rural communities, and the consensus was that no matter how good wireless gets (in terms of bandwidth), you will still need fiber to provide a backbone. Paradoxically, as wireless bandwidth capacity increases, you need fiber more, not less.
All that wireless bandwidth eventually has to hop back onto the wired Internet, and so you will need a fiber backbone, not something lashed together using copper T1 and DSL lines (which is common today).
Every community is different, so there is no one way to start investing in broadband infrastructure, but one rule of thumb does hold true everywhere: don't put all your eggs in one basket.
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Blogging and economic development
I generally get a cool reception when I tell communities that they need to promote community portals and local blogging. It just does not sound like something that is going to bring jobs and businesses into a region.
This short article is just one data point, but illustrates perfectly how the Web and what is available on the Web from a community or region drives relocation decisions. Here is the key quote:
"...One of the things that encouraged me to make that move with my family was the realization that the vitality, innovative spirit, and collegial atmosphere of the region around B-burg was a good bit higher than I realized. Your weblog was a key part of that, along with the discovery of a growing community of writers, musicians, and creative businesses."
Community portals and a rich, interconnected web of local community sites and blogs tell the world that your community is online, understands technology, is not afraid of it, and is using it to connect people. It's the cheapest and easiest way to promote what your community has to offer people looking for a great place to live and to work.
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Bloggers exempt from political rules
Teh Federal Election Commission has clarified rules for political and campaign activity by exempting virtually all kinds of political speech on the Internet from the onerous rules that cover how campaign funds can be spent.
The rules, which surfaced last year, seemed to require onerous reporting by citizen bloggers if they even wrote about political candidates, and if they accepted campaign ads on their Web sites, it was worse. But occasionally government does the right thing.
Bloggers and their writing are much like the pamphleteers that were popular during the early days of the U.S. They are both citizen writers that generally derive little or no income from the activity. Imposing the same rules on bloggers that are required of professionally managed political campaigns made no sense administratively and even less sense in a free speech context.
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