Technology Futures

As I have written previously, Google and Apple are in fierce competition with each other, which is good for all us. Competition makes both companies work harder to deliver better products at less cost. Google has just announced their Google TV service. It is a bit different than Apple's Apple TV. Apple TV is a small device you buy directly from Apple; you can stream all your iTunes and iPhoto content (pictures, music, movies, TV shows) from other Macs nearby, and you can also access and watch movies from Netflix and other online sources.

Google TV requires that you buy certain models of televisions made by Sony with the "Internet TV" feature, or by buying a little box from Logitech that you hook up to your existing TV. The Google approach emphasizes search and a browser-centric design, and comes with the ability to use apps very similar in style and approach to iPhone/iPad apps. The apps feature is not present on the current Apple TV, but the Apple device appears to let Apple turn that feature on in the future.

This all has a bit of the feel of the Betamax vs. VHS wars of the early eighties. How many boxes, widgets, and gadgets do vendors think we want attached to our, um, "TV," although the notion of "TV" is rapidly becoming dated? The vendors seem to be able to invent new devices to attach quicker than TV makers can add extra inputs. Let's count what an average home TV might have attached:

• DVD player
• DVR (digital video recorder)
• VCR (for those old videotapes that are quietly deteriorating in the closet)
• Game box (e.g. Wii, Playstation, XBox, etc.)
• Set top box from cable or satellite provider
• Digital TV box (e.g. Apple TV, Google TV, etc.)

So we are up to six boxes so far, and I have probably missed some, like a Slingbox. At some point, this all becomes too much trouble for the average person, but the situation is not likely to improve until service providers and manufacturers agree on some standards for some of this stuff. Don't hold your breathe; all these companies have a nice slick PowerPoint presentation that has convinced upper management they can capture a majority market share and rule the world. Some of these firms will cling to the PowerPoint fantasy markets until they go broke.

What is the broadband connection? With all these new ways to access content, largely via broadband, not old-fashioned cable TV, fiber to the home is going to be a must-have amenity. I already hear from real estate agents that house buyers under 35 won't even step foot in a house without broadband, and soon it will be that house buyers won't look at homes without fiber. Trust me on the this one.

In a story that has been simmering for a while, the New York Times reports that the Feds want to be able to easily wiretap a wide variety of Internet services, including Skype, Facebook,and Blackberry (RIM) communications.

Someone needs to remind them that the Internet was designed to be able route around damage, and wiretapping looks like damage. If someone was plotting something nefarious, either they are stupid enough to use Facebook and deserve to get caught, or they are smart enough to use some other method of communication. It is almost trivially easy to create new communications methods using Internet protocols, and the FBI would never even know about them if those that created them only tell their Best Friends Forever. This represents an erosion of privacy for the rest of us, and only a trivial deterrent to criminal activity.

I still remember a conversation I had about a year ago when I told an business acquaintance that Blockbuster was toast, and that it was only going to be a year or two before the company would be gone. My acquaintance argued politely that that was not going to happen, we agreed to disagree, and we finished up our meeting. But for some reason, that particular conversation stuck with me, even though I have talked about this to hundreds of people.

What amazes me is how stuck some people get in a belief that business models never change, and that companies and markets can grow forever. Blockbuster was in the right place and the right time to enjoy dramatic growth, crush its business enemies, and become one of the most hated brands in America. The company's insistence on ridiculously punitive late fees was the first clue that the company's leaders were out of touch with customers and the market. How anyone thought that enhancing profits by punishing customers was a good idea still perplexes me, but a lot of people at Blockbuster thought so.

Netflix was really a response to that. The Netflix folks had two key ideas: one was that people tend to take a few days to get around to returning movies. The second was that some day, DVDs would be history and everyone would watch on demand via a broadband connection. Even though the company started out mailing DVDs back and forth, you will notice they did not call the company "PostalFlix."

I saw something the other day that made me think I might finally want an iPad--someone near me on an airplane was watching a movie on their iPad. The big screen was easy to see, and the iPad has enough battery life to watch a long movie without running out of power, which is a problem with many laptops. Air travel has become so unpleasant that being able to watch a movie of my own choice has some appeal. The seats are now so close together that on most flights, even on bigger planes, it is nearly impossible to work comfortably on a laptop. I was on a 757 the other day, and there was only 12 inches of space between the front edge of my seat and the back of the seat in front of me. When you dropped down the tray table, the edge was jutting into my chest--impossible to comfortably use a laptop keyboard or to get the screen at a comfortable angle. But my iPad seatmate was able to prop the iPad up easily and enjoy a movie.

As video has moved from the Blockbuster store to the Netflix postal model (which is also toast, but Netflix knows this) and is now rapidly moving to the on demand model, the iPad and similar tablets are going to take it the final step--true portability--watch whatever you want, whenever you want, pretty much wherever you are.

In making a hotel reservation, I wanted to double check how to get from the hotel (B) to the office building (A) where the meeting will be held. The hotel appears to be less than one block from the office building. But the loop-de-loop blue line is the route that the map software gave. And that's why I seldom use a GPS device in the car.