Technology Futures

I was talked into going to see the movie "The Social Network" last night. Ostensibly about the rise of Facebook, it's hard to know how much of it was based on facts and how much was fantasy. I know that I thought the movie would never end. I can't recall another film in recent memory where every single character was so consistently unlikable. Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook, probably is hard to get along with, but by the end of the movie, I was starting to feel sorry for him. If you check the Wikipedia entry on Mark Zuckerberg", Aaron Sorkin, the screenwriter, admits that the movie may not have much to do with the real story behind Facebook. Fair enough--few movies based on a real life story do stick closely to the facts.

What I found depressing was the relentless anti-business, anti-geek, anti-software message the film seemed to have. After watching the film, if you have not worked in the software business, it would be easy to leave the theatre thinking that software is developed by misogynist, greedy, self-centered nerds with personality disorders who have only two activities: writing software or drinking heavily and using illegal drugs. There were only six other people in the theatre, so I suspect this movie has already passed its prime.

The iPad is breaking every consumer electronic sales record and setting new records. The sales records set by the device include biggest first day sales, biggest first month sales, and biggest first year sales. Apple is on track to sell something north of ten million iPads in the first year. By comparison, the DVD player, in its first year, sold a measly 350,000 units. Apple sold 300,000 iPads on the first day.

Sales are so massive that the iPad has created a new category of consumer electronics and already ranks fourth, behind TVs, phones, and laptop computers.

The city of Washington, D.C. challenged hackers to try to break into one of their secure Internet-based electronic voting system. It was part of a test for the software before deploying it in the city--letting D.C. voters skip going to the polls and voting online instead. Well, students from the University of Michigan hacked into the system and re-programmed the software to play the Michigan fight song after each vote.

The online voting project has been suspended. The online system was intended to make it easier to submit absentee ballots. Security experts had warned the city that the system would be vulnerable to attacks, and so it was. We have a perfectly good paper ballot and mechanical ballot system that is extremely resistant to internal manipulation. Making it "more convenient" to vote by introducing vulnerable systems is not progress.

As I have written previously, Google and Apple are in fierce competition with each other, which is good for all us. Competition makes both companies work harder to deliver better products at less cost. Google has just announced their Google TV service. It is a bit different than Apple's Apple TV. Apple TV is a small device you buy directly from Apple; you can stream all your iTunes and iPhoto content (pictures, music, movies, TV shows) from other Macs nearby, and you can also access and watch movies from Netflix and other online sources.

Google TV requires that you buy certain models of televisions made by Sony with the "Internet TV" feature, or by buying a little box from Logitech that you hook up to your existing TV. The Google approach emphasizes search and a browser-centric design, and comes with the ability to use apps very similar in style and approach to iPhone/iPad apps. The apps feature is not present on the current Apple TV, but the Apple device appears to let Apple turn that feature on in the future.

This all has a bit of the feel of the Betamax vs. VHS wars of the early eighties. How many boxes, widgets, and gadgets do vendors think we want attached to our, um, "TV," although the notion of "TV" is rapidly becoming dated? The vendors seem to be able to invent new devices to attach quicker than TV makers can add extra inputs. Let's count what an average home TV might have attached:

• DVD player
• DVR (digital video recorder)
• VCR (for those old videotapes that are quietly deteriorating in the closet)
• Game box (e.g. Wii, Playstation, XBox, etc.)
• Set top box from cable or satellite provider
• Digital TV box (e.g. Apple TV, Google TV, etc.)

So we are up to six boxes so far, and I have probably missed some, like a Slingbox. At some point, this all becomes too much trouble for the average person, but the situation is not likely to improve until service providers and manufacturers agree on some standards for some of this stuff. Don't hold your breathe; all these companies have a nice slick PowerPoint presentation that has convinced upper management they can capture a majority market share and rule the world. Some of these firms will cling to the PowerPoint fantasy markets until they go broke.

What is the broadband connection? With all these new ways to access content, largely via broadband, not old-fashioned cable TV, fiber to the home is going to be a must-have amenity. I already hear from real estate agents that house buyers under 35 won't even step foot in a house without broadband, and soon it will be that house buyers won't look at homes without fiber. Trust me on the this one.