Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
Yesterday's Wall Street Journal (print edition, p. B8) had an article by Brian Steinberg about broadband and its effect on people's habits. According to Steinberg, broadband connections are now used by 48% of Internet users, the same number of people on dialup. This is a big jump from last fall, when data was suggesting that about 35% of Internet users were on broadband (the other 4% are probably using non-standard connections like satellite, cellphones, etc.).
As broadband use increases, traditional analog television is the big loser. Here's an interesting quote from Jeffery Godsick, the executive VP of 20th Century Fox:
"...TV is not their [the broadband users] primary way of finding out about movies or anything."
In a move that must frighten the pants off TV execs, movie studios are planning to release full screen movie trailers over the Internet. Now, you might ask what the big deal is; movie trailers have been available on the Internet for years. But these have been smaller files that play in small to medium size windows on your monitor. What's new is that these upcoming movie trailers are going to be close to DVD quality--massive files that are ready for viewing on big screen and HD monitors.
It's a test of the network, and of viewers--the movie studios, using the trailers, can study the distribution and performance costs of making these big files available, and they can see how many people make the effort to download them. The next step will be to make movies available for download, streaming, and/or sale.
The movie industry is slowing adapting to the new all digital, all IP converged model of entertainment. Apple has shown that you can make money with legal file downloads, and Apple has also shown that most people, when presented with a reasonable DRM (Digital Rights Management) system and fair prices, will download legally.
Within the next twelve months, we are going to see a breakout IP "TV" show become available only on the Internet. Count on it. And at the introduction of that first IP "Desperate Housewives" or "The Simpsons," the fifty year hegemony of broadcast TV will come to an end.
CNet has an article that provides a good summary of some of the current issues surrounding community-financed broadband. On one side, you have the cable companies and telcos, determined to prevent communities from controlling their own destiny. On the other side, you have communities getting limited or no access to broadband services, with those towns and cities at a serious disadvantage in the global economy as 15 other countries have better broadband than the United States.
If the incumbents had their way fifty to seventy-five years ago, we'd have no paved roads, no clean water, no sewer services, no libraries, no sidewalks, no streetlights, and no plowed streets in winter. All of those services could be provided by the private sector. But we decided that for the common good, it was better to have local government provide those.
Frank Maguire is the cofounder of FedEx, and this article reports on a recent speech he gave about passion, success, and the determination to make things work. Among his comments was this statement.
"There's a light in each one of you and it's bigger than you ever thought and it's on your side," he said. "Turn on your light. You can do it, regardless of your circumstances."
Maguire's comments apply equally well to communities. We are in a period of rapid and often troubling change, fraught with both peril and opportunity. Our communities face a variety of challenges, and I think that the communities that want to be around in twenty, or thirty, or fifty years need the kind of passion, devotion, and commitment that Maguire says made the difference in his life. Particularly in economic development, it's not enough to be mediocre.
That worked when the competition was the mediocre county next door, but when the competition is from communities, provinces, and countries across the globe, mediocre is not good enough. Communities need to find their passion, hire the best people they can find, and stick to it until they are successful.
The Register reports on a new law enacted in Holland that can charitably only be described as "stupid." In a misguided effort to prop up the ailing music industry, the Netherlands has decided to impose a per megabyte tax on all hard drive-based music players, with the proceeds going to the music industry.
This means, according to the article, that the 60 gigabyte model of the iPod would have a tax of $235! According to the Register, Germany also has a tax on computer hard drives, and as they get bigger, the hard drive tax could exceed the base cost of the computer (that is, the tax will be several thousand dollars).
There are so many things wrong with this approach that it is hard to know where to begin. In the first place, the Holland law assumes that all music stored on portable music players is stolen, when in fact only a very small percentage is. So music lovers have to pay royalties twice--once when they buy the music, and again when they buy the music player. It's a windfall for the music industry, since only a small part of royalties actually go to the artist. It forces the music player retailers to become tax collectors, which is always a bad idea. And it will simply drive the purchase of music players out of the country. Holland is an easy drive from a half dozen other countries, and it's barely an afternoon trip to take the train to France, pick up an iPod, and go home.
The music industry does not have a "right" to make money. As markets and technologies change, businesses have to change too. This business of using laws to protect monopolies hurts communities and whole countries, as innovation and new products are simply driven elsewhere. It's a global economy, and Dutch lawmakers are naive in extreme to believe this law will work. It will only hurt the country's economic development as businesses see their customers go elsewhere, and not just for iPods. While they are across the border, they are likely to shop for other items as well.
We have a similar problem with anti-muni broadband in this country. Making municipal investments in broadband illegal props up old, Manufacturing Economy businesses, drives away innovation and new economic development activity, raises prices, and hurts communities.
I'm a big fan of microduct and blown fiber, and Emtelle is one of the world leaders in the technology. I think it is an ideal solution for community and neighborhood fiber projects, as it works with both passive and active optical network equipment, it's easy to install, and easy to repair--essential qualities for community-managed systems. But it's always been hard to explain without actually seeing it. This movie on the Emtelle site is short and illustrates how it works end to end (you need a Flash player plug-in for your browser).
Note that I have no financial connection to Emtelle; I just think they make terrific products. Emtelle studies show that microduct systems are as much as 44% less expensive than traditional fiber cable. Microduct systems need fewer or no pedestals, no handholes or pullboxes, the duct requires no special handling (cheaper to install), and you typically spend less on fiber.
Wired reports that a San Francisco AM radio station is going to an all-podcast format. The station is inviting people to create their own content and send it to the station, which will screen it and then make it available for download.
Wired's cover story in its print magazine was about the sea change in radio being brought about by MP3 players, and the only surprise is that a station has gone over to the other side this quickly. You don't need an iPod to listen--any MP3 player will do--but Apple's software (iTunes) makes it quick and easy. iTunes is available for both Windows and the Mac, and all iPods work with both Macs and Windows.
On another mailing list, I heard about a T-Mobile Web page that would tell you what kind of signal you are likely to get at a given street address in the U.S. Because U.S. Cellular offers nothing but bottom of the bin cellphones (they are not big enough to get deals to sell phones like the Treo 650), I thought I'd check T-Mobile.
The company has never had coverage in Blacksburg, but I thought I'd try again, since I have not checked with them lately. So I went to the page, typed in my street address, city, state, and zip code, pressed the button, and voila.
I got back a message saying "Input zip code is invalid."
Wow. That's interesting. Either T-Mobile is trying to tell me I live in an "invalid" place, or there is a bug in their code, or it's a really awful way of saying they have no coverage in my area.
Pick any one of those three choices, and you get to the same conclusion--somebody screwed up, either by not testing it adequately and/or by failing utterly to do a basic software ergonomics review to make sure the "error" messages made sense.
My guess: This little app was outsourced to a software shop in India, which did a bang up job of banging out the code cheaply and producing a slick little application. But you get what you pay for. Outsourced contractors rarely care much about little details like this; they are under the gun to get the work done quickly and cheaply for the client, and so they don't have the luxury of dotting the i's and crossing the t's.
At the same time that we see big companies getting bigger by relentless costcutting and globalization of production, why is there a parallel rise in small, entreprenuerial enterprises? Because the small entrepreneur has more skin in the game--he or she has to produce high quality stuff to be competitive. A two hundred person coding shop in India just has to get the next job. It's not either/or here....both have their place, and both can provide useful services.
In this instance, it's someone at T-Mobile who did not supervise the work properly. And really, it's no more than a college sophmore class project to throw together some code that validates zip codes. T-Mobile should be embarrased and ashamed.
Xerox wins some kind of special prize for the worst telephone support I've ever encountered. How bad is it?
It's worse than Verizon! (Note--not any more--see my updated note at the end of this article. Verizon, on the other hand, still has terrible customer service)
I have a Xerox printer/copier, and the hinge on the cover broke a few days ago. I bought a Xerox in part because I was assured that I could get service for it. I was tired of having to discard cheap printers because you could not get minor repairs.
I called nine (9) different phone numbers. Eight times, I ended up speaking to someone with a limited command of English who informs me that I have to call another number. It's a circular process--after the sixth call, they started giving me the first numbers I had called.
Xerox has apparently outsourced all American customer support to other countries. After a while, I started asking where people were, and talked to someone in Jamaica and Canada. I'm also guessing I was connected to someone in India and perhaps Mexico.
What would be hilarious if it was not pathetic was that every single person had the same response: "We don't handle that model here. You need to call this number...."
How hard can it be to associate model numbers with the correct phone number? This is the simplest of database problems, and apparently Xerox is unable to do that correctly.
I finally did get someone who spoke English as a first language (from Nova Scotia), and she was very helpful. She got a service person on the line who was able to schedule a service call. The machine is less than a year old, and when I asked about the repair being covered under warranty, I was informed that Xerox sold its machines without warranties, or at best, with a 90 day warranty. No warranty! One of the biggest copier companies in the world apparently makes machines so bad they don't warrant them to work at all.
Now some of you might be thinking, "He should have checked." And so I should have. But would you have ever imagined Xerox would sell machines without a warranty? The service rep offered to sell me a maintenance contract, but they could not tell me how much it costs. Another IT failure. Surely a company the size of Xerox could cough up a little database application that would let a company rep type in a model number and get back simple information like the cost of a maintenance agreement. For crying out loud...you could do that with a Wiki in about fifteen minutes. Instead, the nice Nova Scotian said she would have to CALL SOMEONE! I hope she has to call fewer than nine people to get an answer.
Update (2/21/06)
I had actually gotten the service contract thing straightened out back in mid-fall. Maintenance is actually very inexpensive, and includes not only all repairs but also toner cartridges and replacement drums. Two people from Xerox contacted me last week and asked if I was continuing to have problems--I have not. They said my postings had triggered an internal review of their customer service procedures and they were working to try to ensure that I or any other customer did not have this kind of experience again.
Good for them.
I'm delighted with the copier-printer I have. It cost more than the cheap laser printers you can buy in OffficeMax for a few hundred dollars, but it has been worth every penny. It prints and copies reliably, never jams, and I can get it fixed if something breaks. I'd much rather buy from a company that is willing to say, "Boy, we screwed up but we want to try to fix things," than a company that will not acknowledge that, or worse, that you can't even contact for help (I bought the Xerox printer after having horrible experiences with a Samsung printer).
Will my next printer be a Xerox? Yes--the quality and reliability, the ability to get the machine repaired, along with a company anxious to do better makes it a no-brainer.
2007 Follow up: I had these problems several years ago, and Xerox's handling of customer calls has much improved since then. I continue to be a huge fan of their printers; they cost a bit more, but boy, do they ever work! My M20i printer, now more than three years old, has jammed only once--a single sheet of paper in three years. The Samsung laser printer I replaced with the Xerox jammed at least weekly, and often daily. Late last year, I purchased a Xerox 6350 color laser printer, and it too is a fantastic machine--extremely fast and extraordinary print quality.
2008 Follow up: My M20i continues to perform beautifully after nearly four years. It was well worth the extra cost for absolutely trouble free performance. The 6350 color printer, now more than a year old, has been outstanding--not a single paper jam, nearly a year on a set of toner cartridges, and dazzling color performance.
GovTech has an article on Missouri's new CIO (Chief Information Officer), who was given the daunting task of improving state government IT services, in part by consolidating 16 separate IT fiefdoms. IT folks are notoriously resistant to service aggregation, because it usually means smaller staffs and smaller budgets. Some IT folks like big, complicated, hard to use systems because it justifies big IT staffs and budgets.
Dan Ross, the new CIO, has his work cut out for him. Statewide IT consolidation is fraught with its own problems. All the IT spending becomes concentrated in one place (usually the state capital), so it often cuts out small and medium-sized businesses as the contracts are rolled up into massive specifications that only big companies with large expense accounts can go after. And those big contracts often have hidden gotchas that end up being more expensive than several smaller contracts distributed among several agencies. And a big IT operation in the capital can become loaded with patronage jobs--you end up with underqualified people making unjustifiably large salaries, and that always ends up being expensive.
But the most interesting thing that has already emerged from Ross' short tenure is the discovery that the state highway department had fiber running up and down every interstate highway in the state. Can you say, "Statewide Voice over IP system?" If nothing else, the combination of a statewide fiber backbone for the government, combined with an overhaul of the existing phone contracts, should lead to some impressive savings.
But the story still begs one question. When did the highway department start putting in fiber, and why didn't they tell anyone about it? It boggles the mind. Were they saving it for something? If so, what exactly? It looks like the CIO of Missouri has already earned his pay.
After I got horribly lost in rural New Hampshire (the day after a blizzard, with six inches of snow still on some roads), I swore off Mapquest forever. I've never been fond of their directions, which always have too many directions. You know the ones....drive .1 miles and veer to the left...continue for .05 miles and bear left....and so on. It takes longer to read the directions than it does to travel a tenth of mile, and a more accurate instruction would be something like "take the left fork."
The straw that broke this camel's back in New Hampshire was when I found myself in some picturesque little New England town and stopped in the local quick stop for directions. I told them where I was going, and everyone in the store burst out laughing. I asked them what the joke was, and they said, "You must have Mapquest directions." I said, "Yea," and there was another round of laughter. They finally explained that for some reason, the Mapquest directions from Manchester to Conway (my destination) were backwards (left turns were right turns, and so on) for part of the trip, and everyone ended up at this store. I finally got where I was going, and discovered that Mapquest's 18 separate instructions could have been boiled down to three if written out by a human being.
But, like steak knives, there's more! I had to go to Reston last week to the Digital Cities conferences, and I'd never been to that particular hotel before. I did not want to use Mapquest, so I decided to use the new Google Maps feature (part of Google's quest to dominate the universe).
That also turned out to be a really bad idea. Google has much better maps on the screen than Mapquest, but they print out horribly fuzzy. Their directions were much like Mapquest's, but I gave it the old college try.
They were horribly wrong. They dumped me off the highway two exits before the correct one, and the last five or six instructions were, as I found out, quite garbled. Like my previous Mapquest adventure, a human would have produced instructions that were no more than three lines.
I'm frequently driving in unfamiliar rural areas, so I'm about ready to try a GPS-enabled map system, but I'm skeptical of those as well. GPS is not a wayfinding cure all--if you are lost, having a dot on the map saying, "You are here" may or may not help much.
The moral of this story is that technology is not always better than common sense and the human brain's marvelous ability to think. I'm firmly in the camp of those who believe that computers will never "think," and the map examples highlight the difficulty of programming machines to mimic human behavior.