Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
The tech world is abuzz with the announcement by Google that they are:
1) Rolling out a national fiber backbone
2) Offering Google Secure Access WiFi services
Throw a rock and you'll hit someone with an opinion, but on SlashDot, which usually has pretty sharp insight into these things, the consensus is as follows:
1) Google's network initiatives will allow it to know even more about its customers, making advertising on Google even more valuable (and it is the advertising that is paying the bills).
2) The phone companies are in deep trouble. Google just rolled out GoogleTalk, a voice application that could quickly become full-fledged VoIP, and you needs lot of bandwidth to handle lots of phone calls. Hence the national fiber backbone. Google will be able to quickly build a large customer base and throw all the hardware resources needed at it to keep service quality high. Look for college students to start dropping cellphone service first.
3) But how do you replace cellphones with fiber? Well, you need a WiFi and/or WiMax wireless network to do so. Which Google has started testing. Just like Sprint and MCI did in the early days of competitive long distance, Google will cherry pick key markets and grab big gobs of customers--think college campuses and college towns, downtown metro areas, etc.
4) Google will also use its massive network to continually provide new and improved Web applications to piggyback on its email, mapping, and newsgroup services. Eventually, Google will rollout a net-centric desktop OS replacement for free, killing Windows.
Who loses? From a community perspective, rural communities are not likely to see free or low cost Google services anytime soon, because the markets are not big enough.
As I have written before, I am very cautious about Google and any other "free" service providers (e.g. Yahoo!, MSN, etc.). You give your privacy away, and lose ownership of your own data. Yahoo! just handed over emails to the Chinese government that resulted in a ten year jail sentence for someone who was writing about freedom in China (or the lack of it).
We need to be very cautious about any company that offers "free" services and exposes us to privacy and free speech problems.
Just a year ago, a lot of people, including me, were predicting that the cellular phone companies would implode as Voice over IP and broadband wireless stole customers.
I'm not so sure anymore. What's different is that the cellphone industry has begun offering a broader range of services that are more likely to be popular. As basic cellphone service has become a commodity with cut-throat pricing, it's add-on services that help pay the bills.
Sprint Nextel has just announced a streaming radio service, with a variety of music and news "channels." Priced at $7 a month, it costs less than the popular satellite radio. Like satellite and Internet radio, it breaks the old radio model that depended on a certain range of frequencies. While it's not a broadband service, it looks like a broadband service and leverages the existing cellular infrastructure.
But streaming audio ties up a cellphone circuit between the tower and the phone, so it will be interesting to see how well this works with voice service. If it is popular, Sprint Nextel will have to add more equipment and/or more towers. Presumably they have studied this and know what the future costs could be.
The problem with the service is that it exists in a Sprint Nextel walled garden. You can only get it if you are a customer of Sprint Nextel. A broadband version would be more accessible to more people, and would not be device dependent.
But it is definitely forward-thinking, unlike the record companies, who keep trying to drag us back to the age of vinyl records, or something like that.
A Canadian firm is showing off a hydrogen generator that they are using to increase the efficiency of existing gas and diesel engines. Current internal combustion engines are not very efficient, and the pollution caused by them is due largely to poorly burned fuel--much of it goes right out the tailpipe.
It has long been known that adding small amounts of hydrogen to the gas-air mix increases performance and lowers emissions, but the problem has been how to store hydrogen safely in the car, as well as provide a supply.
This firm has built a hydrogen generator that runs on distilled water (easy to supply) and creates hydrogen on demand, bypassing the storage problem completely. The small box is easily fitted in the engine compartment of existing cars. Independent testing shows that the device does increase efficiency (about 10%) and dramatically reduces emissions.
So one effect is to basically increase our supply of fossil fuels by 10% without any more drilling! On top of that, tailpipe emissions are so low that auto and truck pollution is virtually eliminated. The Energy Economy rolls along merrily, with big changes coming over the next five to ten years as all this new stuff reaches the marketplace.
Toshiba has previewed a line of MP3 music players that run on fuel cells powered by alchohol. The players won't be available until 2007, but will have run times that greatly exceed any battery-powered player--run times of 35 hours and 60 hours are quoted.
One of the biggest problems when introducing something new and unfamiliar is acceptance of the underlying technology. Starting with a youth-oriented product like music players will speed acceptance of fuel cells generally. This is just the first of many products that will switch from batteries to fuel cells. And remember that alchohol can be made from corn instead of fossil fuels.
The music industry continues to anger both customers and bands. The RIAA inexplicably continues to sue users for downloading music. Even though there is little evidence that downloading copyrighted music has contributed to the decline in sales, the industry takes a baffling approach to the lawsuits by apparently picking names out of a hat. The suits seem to lack even basic information or investigations that would support wrongdoing, and the defendants seem to be picked mostly on the basis of whether or not they have the resources to fight back. This is a long article, and is written by a group of people that have been sued, but it is an interesting read if even half of it is true.
In an even more bizarre development, a band called Switchfoot has posted instructions on how to bypass copy protection that Sony put on the band's latest CD. Even stranger is that the information is posted on a Sony message board. Note that if the link does not work, it is probably because Sony has removed the information.
So the record industry is attacking their own customers, and has made the source of their products (the bands) angry. There is a lesson here for businesses trying to adapt to the changes wrought by the Internet: you can try to hold on to the old ways, but it is not likely to work. Distribution and marketing have changed irrevocably, and the only thoughtful option (in my opinion) is to look for new ways and new opportunities that take advantage of the medium, rather than trying to fight it.
The Liftport Group, which is a private company building a space elevator, has received FAA approval for preliminary testing. The company will use a ballon with a one mile high tether to run tests of the lifting mechanisms.
One of several space elevator efforts, the projects will use super-strength carbon nanotube cables that run from the ground to low earth orbit. Centripetal force and counterweights will keep the cable rigid and anchored in one spot. The space elevators will dramatically lower the cost of getting people and materials into orbit.
Christopher Miller points to an interesting survey that says 87% of Americans don't know what VoIP (Voice over IP) is. Ten percent thought it was a "low carb vodka," and another group thought it was some kind of European hybrid car.
The results actually track pretty closely to the number of people that read blogs. The estimates vary a lot, but suggest that somewhere around 10-15% of Americans read blogs, which is about the same number that are familiar with VoIP as a new way of making phone calls.
As communities struggle with broadband, local blogs written specifically to help people learn about technology can be an important way of educating people and helping to create a market for new services. It is never just a matter of getting some money and building some fiber or wireless infrastructure.
Wired follows up on an AP report that more and more young people (an estimated 25%) have already sustained hearing loss that is not normally seen until decades later in life.
According to the article, too many people are listening to portable music players at ear-damaging volume levels. Particularly bad are the "ear buds" that are inserted directly into the ear canal, rather than external headphones that cover some or all of the outer ear.
Google has released a beta version of a new blog search tool.
Just a little playing around with it suggests they got it right: it is fast, and was able to find a lot of good stuff quickly. The advanced search is particularly useful, as you can search by author, by topic, by date, and by a bunch of other criteria unique to blogs.
The other refreshing thing is that so far, the results of completely free of commercial dreck--no phony link farms and the related tricks that try to get you click on results that are not really relevant. It will be interesting to see if Google can keep the results "pure." Unfortunately, what we are likely to see is a sudden rise in phony blogs written just to get into Google search results. But right now, it works great.
The news outlets are all carrying the story of eBay paying $4 billion for Skype.
I do think Voice over IP telephony is going to replace analog phone service, and that the transition will happen faster than many think, but Skype is hardly workth $4 billion USD.
Here is the problem: The technology Skype has is nothing special. There are not only competing commercial products, but there are plenty of Open Source VoIP projects as well, like Gizmo. And Gizmo shows every sign of being a big hit.
So what will eBay get for it's money? Skype has some twenty or thirty million "users" of its free version, and a much smaller number of paying users. I put the word "users" in quotes because trying to count who actually uses free software is mostly a wild guess. The most popular way to do it is to count the number of downloads, which does not mean much. Many people download free software and never use it even once, or fire it up once or twice and then forget about it.
So eBay does not get a large base of established users, and even the smaller group of users that have paid to use Skype's ability to connect to the existing phone network is suspect--making one paid phone call makes you a "Skype" customer but does not translate automatically into a recurring revenue stream.
VoIP is the killer app for broadband, just as email was the killer app for dial up Internet service. Many people who otherwise would not bother upgrading their dial up connection will do so to save money on phone service. In many cases, the savings pay for the increased cost of the broadband connection.
So there is much interest in trying to capture the VoIP market. The Skype guys are really smart; they followed the now classic formula for establishing a new market and then selling high, before they a) run into competition, or b) actually have to provide a reasonable level of service.
The problem eBay has is that it's very easy to switch from one piece of VoIP software to the other. The second, and much bigger problem, is that there is no established standard for "Internet phone numbers." The free version of Skype works only with other Skype users, and you have to know their Skype number in advance. Ditto for other free VoIP services. And voice telephony is only useful if the people you want to call use the same software that you do.
If Open Source projects like Gizmo succeed in establishing a standard "phone number," eBay is out $4 billion. And Gizmo, or something like it, has a good shot at doing so. Once that happens, plain old telephone service (POTS) is free, and eBay is out of luck.
We're entering into a VoIP bubble. We'll see more big, outlandish deals for VoIP software. And most of them will amount to nothing.