Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.
Forbes to rural communities: "Don't bother"
Connected Planet comments on a Forbes blogger has ignited a rich discussion online by saying that broadband in rural areas is a waste of time and money.
It really is about roads--digital roads. Many rural communities will not survive without improved access to affordable, high performance broadband infrastructure. The Forbes article fails utterly to differentiate between what we call "little broadband," meaning DSL, cable modem, and wireless, and "big broadband," which is fiber to customer, starting at 100 megabit capacity and now moving quickly to Gigabit.
The incumbents use a circular argument to "prove" rural areas don't need big broadband by claiming that they don't see any of their customers using it, but how can you use it if you don't have it. For the past eighteen years, anytime broadband capacity has been increased, customers find new ways to use it that pushes the limits of that technology. AT&T recently indicated that their smartphone customers use as much as 1000x more bandwidth than "dumb" cellphone customers, and nationally, cell tower saturation is above 70%. When that number hits 80%, the network is at full capacity because of demand spikes.
As the interstate highway system was built out, rural communities that were bypassed often withered away. Rural towns face the same prospect as more and more business activities are conducted via high capacity broadband: if the rural town does not have affordable access to competitively priced broadband services, businesses will leave and new businesses will not move there. The good news is that, unlike the interstate highway system, high performance broadband is much less expensive and every rural community can have the equivalent of an exit off the interstate.
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AT&T: DSL is "obsolete"
The CEO of AT&T has stated that DSL is "obsolete." In a speech on Tuesday in Los Angeles, Randall Stephenson said the telephone giant invested in DSL in the nineties to compete with the cable companies. AT&T is now concentrating on wireless and it's fiber to neighborhood offering called Uverse. Uverse continues to use copper from a neighborhood cabinet to the premises, making it less capable than fiber to the premises.
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It's official: The DVD is dead
Apple released the latest version of its Macintosh operating system today (OS X Lion). The software is available only via a download right now, and you better have a good, high capacity broadband connection if you want it, as the download is four gigabytes. Apple also announced that it will sell a version of the software on a USB thumb drive next month. In other words, no DVD version, not now, not ever. Apple has consistently led the way in media, including the 3.5 inch floppy, the CD drive, the DVD drive, USB ports, and Firewire, among others. If Apple is dropping the DVD, expect other computer makers to follow.
But note also that this shift to encouraging downloads of major pieces of software also highlights the need for homes and businesses to have adequate and affordable broadband connections, or be left behind.
Even more interesting, new Macs come with the ability to install the latest operating system from an entirely blank hard drive--as long as you have an adequate Internet connection.
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U.S.Broadband: Almost as good as Northern Balochistan!
Long time readers of this blog know that I have a running joke about comparing the state of U.S. broadband infrastructure to other countries. The latest insult is Northern Balochistan (part of Pakistan), which is getting a 1,100 kilometre fiber build. Meanwhile, our rather measly national goal is 4 meg down, 1 meg up, which won't support work and business from home applications and is barely adequate for Netflix.
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Netflix raises prices
Netflix has raised prices. I got my notice via email yesterday. They have unbundled streaming from the traditional DVD via mail, and you now can buy one service, the other, or both. The DVD service is still more expensive than streaming, which suggests that the cost of mailing DVDs remains significant compared to the cost of buying bandwidth to drag streaming content across the Internet. The pricing change also suggests that many customers have largely transitioned away from DVDs to streaming content, and Netflix is giving those customers, that don't care about getting DVDs, a break on price.
Services like Netflix, Roku, and Hulu are going to continue to put tremendous pressure on the providers of "little broadband:" the DSL, cable, and wireless providers. These old systems are running out capacity, and it's a race to the bottom for these firms. They can keep trying to upgrade the old systems, but the more they spend, the faster their customers use up the bandwidth.
Don't believe that? Take a look at the cellular data services market. AT&T and Verizon have abandoned their unlimited data plans and have put bandwidth caps on their services because they can't keep up with customer bandwidth usage otherwise. This makes the concept that rural communities will all get their broadband via the cellular providers rather silly, unless you subscribe to the notion that rural folks should be relegated to what amounts to the 21st century version of dial-up.
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Facebook and LinkedIn: Be afwaid...be vewy vewy afraid...
I just got an invite to Google+, the new Facebook-like offering from Google. So I created an account, and at first glance, I would say Facebook and LinkedIn have a lot to worry about. Note, however, that Google has a very mixed track record of success outside search and mapping. Anyone remember Orkut? It never caught on the U.S., although it has been successful in some other countries like India. If Google can do a better job of supporting business-oriented uses of Google+, both Facebook and LinkedIn will have to work very hard to keep their customer base.
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iPad user satisfaction increases over time
User satisfaction with most gadgets tends to decrease after about 13 weeks of use, but a new study by a University of Missouri researcher shows that people like their iPads MORE after that period of time--more than when they first bought it.
iPad use patterns are also different from traditional laptop and desktop computers, with use of iPads peaking in the evening, unlike other computers. The iPad and similar tablet devices are going to create additional strains on existing antiquated copper-based broadband infrastructure as users use the devices to watch movies, play interactive games, and browse bandwidth-heavy multimedia news sites.
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Exit building BEFORE tweeting about it
Found on the Internet...I nearly spit out my coffee when I saw this....
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Internet addiction shrinks your brain, and we need more money to see if that is a bad thing
I spent twelve years working at a major research university, so I have a pretty good idea how some kinds of research works: Identify an area no one knows much about (so no one can refute anything you say), like "Internet addiction." Then run some inexpensive study that turns up some really scarifying outcome ("Too much Internet causes brain shrinkage!!"). Hedge your bets by indicating "we don't really know what this means." Then announce that you really need a lot more money for a really big study that will take years and scads of grad students.
And no, I'm not making this up.
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Broadband and the emerging revolution in health care
Take a look at this blood pressure cuff that connects directly to an iPod Touch, an iPhone, or an iPad. The data is stored and displayed on your own device, but the data is also sent to the manufacturer (Withings), where it can be shared with a health care professional. I'm not too excited about sharing my health information with a software firm, but what is important is that many of the standard diagnostic tools available to health care professionals are about to make managing your own health much easier, as well as giving you the tools to give your doctor much better information about your health. Doctors may be subscribing high blood pressure medicine based on just a few BP readings taken days apart, in the office, where the "white coat" effect on blood pressure is well known (your blood pressure is typically higher in the doctor's office, where you may be nervous about negative results). Compare that approach to health care to being able to easily take daily BP readings over a period of weeks or months to give a much better look at overall blood pressure. Couple this cuff with devices that reads blood sugar, heart rate, blood oxygen levels, and some other blood tests, and it will be possible to spend much less on doctor visits while actually getting better diagnoses.
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