Technology Futures

Congressman Rick Boucher (D, Virginia) represents southwest Virginia, including Blacksburg. Boucher is guest-hosting law professor Lawrence Lessig's blog this week, and there is a cogent and fascinating discussion of the Induce Act. The Induce Act would build on the already questionable DCMA law to make it more difficult (in theory) to pirate digital media.

The Induce Act has already created a firestorm of criticism for its overbroad attempt to stifle piracy by making it illegal to introduct any new technology or device that MIGHT be used for illegal sharing. In other words, as it has been pointed out, the iPod and indeed, all MP3 players would be illegal. Boucher is co-sponsor of a bill that would try to hold back the Induce tide.

Indium sounds like one of those made up compounds, like Intel's "Itanium" or Volkswagen's "Turbonium." but indium is a little known metal that is essential to the manufacture of LCD panels. The Wall Street Journal reports on a potential shortage of the transparent, conductive metal. It's refined from the tailings of commodity metals like zinc and lead.

The problem is that only a few hundred tons mark the entire world production, and the price has been rising rapidly. Even with the price increases, so little is sold that it's hardly worth it to the big zinc and lead producers to bother refining it. So while supplies are adequate right now, the exploding demand for big screen TVs and LCD panels suggests shortages may develop.

Cement is also creating a slowdown in the world economy. Paradoxically, the global Knowledge Economy is suffering from the high prices created by, of all things, cement. It's a useful reminder that for all the hype, the IT business is not the major driver in the global economy. It's a driver, but not the primary one (if there even is one). Businesses around the country, even in rural areas, are feeling the effects of the cement shortage because of demand in China and Iraq....proof positive that we can't ignore the interconnected, increasingly complex world beyond the borders of our own county and community.

Information Week has an interesting article about SBC and Verizon. The two big phone companies are selling off their rural landlines to raise cash to run fiber to their higher density urban and suburban customers.

So instead of complaining about your local phone company, buy them out! The neat thing here is that if you buy out the lines, the customers come with them, so you have instant cash flow. Here's the business plan:

• Form a coop.
• Borrow money and/or get funds for starting coops from the USDA.
• Buy out the phone company.
• Start offering services and billing customers.
• Develop long range plans to offer broadband; include VoIP services and other advanced services to help make the transition financially sound.

I've obviously oversimplified this a good deal, but coops are a tried and true business model that have successfully offered wireline services in rural areas for decades. And fiber is nothing more than another cable. If coops have gotten a cable to their customers in the past for telephone and electric services, why can't they do it in the future?

CNet has a terrific article on community broadband and the policy issues surrounding community development of telecom infrastructure. It's a must-read article; it's long but provides an excellent overview of community telecom landscape, including the benefits communities are seeing, the anti-competitive opposition from the big companies, and the lackluster support for these initiatives at the Federal level.

Bottom line? We're not doing enough in the United States to stay competitive with the rest of the world. Our fractured approach to creating world class networks is being manipulated by special interests and anti-competitive forces, and the Federal government is doing enough. This is depressing stuff, but needs to be thought about carefully.

South Korea is pointed to as an example of how this is being done right. I often reference South Korea myself, but we need to remember South Korea is smaller than two-thirds of the states in the U.S., so the national government there is dealing with a scale that is much smaller. Furthermore, because it is small, there are fewer layers of government.

As much as I would like to see state and Federal help pick up steam, I don't think communities can wait--the risk is too great that the state and Federal governments never do get their act together. Community and regional projects, funded modestly with modest goals, can and will get the job done over time.