Technology Futures

Google's new partnership with Sun is creating a lot of speculation, in part because the details of the agreement are quite vague. Sun has agreed to download the Google Toolbar with every copy of Sun's Java software. The Google Toolbar is unpopular with a lot of net folks (including me) because it actually inserts links into a Web document where there were none. In other words, the Toolbar changes the meaning of a Web page without the author's permission. And the links, of course, point to Google content.

I have taken much criticism over the past several years by arguing that forcing the telephone and cable companies to open their networks to competitors (called "open access") was the wrong thing to do. And I got more scorn when I said the FCC did the right thing earlier this year by formally putting an end to line sharing for DSL.

I was told recently that the MSAP (Multimedia Services Access Point) was outdated and no longer needed. The MSAP is a public peering point that we pioneered in Blacksburg in 1999. It is still in operation today, and vastly improves network performance within the community.

Universal Studios has announced that it will put its movies online by the end of next year. The link has very little detail, but the fact that a major studio has committed to this is very significant.

What is not mentioned but important is that you will only be able to download movies if you have a broadband connection. Those that worry about investing in community broadband infrastructure on the theory that people won't use it should rest easy. Everybody (or at least a very high percentage) watches movies.

USA Today reports that IP TV is booming, just as I have been saying. IP TV shows have been attracting audiences of half a million people, which many cable TV channels would kill to have. And advertisers are pouring billions into the new medium--they love it because their ads can be much more narrowly focused for specific audiences, and someone interested can click right through to the advertiser's site.

An FTC (Federal Trade Commission) commissioner spoke out against cable and telecom efforts to stifle community investment in broadband. Jon Leibowitz made a sensible analogy when he said that the current industry approach was like "Barnes and Noble and Borders saying libraries are killing their business and asking law makers to stop localities from building more libraries."

The Region 2000 Technology Council, which serves Lynchburg, Virginia and the surrounding area, is really beginning to make a difference. A year ago, they found that too many people in the area still did not understand the value of broadband, in part because they had never had a chance to try it.

MIT's $100 dollar computer is beginning to take shape. The idea is to create a computer that is affordable for virtually everyone in the world, and does not have the power-hogging and environmental requirements that work fine in air conditioned homes and businesses but that are entirely unsuitable for use in rural villages without reliable electric power.

With movie attendance down this year, it has apparently forced the studios to think outside the box a bit. Universal Studios has been offering free previews of the movie Serenity to bloggers around the country. The idea is that the bloggers, will, um, blog about it, and create buzz.

It appears to be working. Serenity is a science fiction film based on an obscure cable TV show called Firefly that lasted only seven episodes. But tech-oriented Web sites and blogs are abuzz with discussions of the movie, most of them positive.

IP TV may break out even sooner than I expected. We may now have an answer for what Google plans to do with its nationwide fiber network and a huge colocation facility it just bought in Manhattan--TV.

Google Video is showing the entire premier episode (22 mins) of the new TV show "Everybody Hates Chris," the autobiographic story of Chris Rock's childhood, when he was the only black kid in an all white school in New York City.

Initial tests by the Liftport Group of Washington state of their robotic lifter went well, and the company says the next test could use a mile high fiber composite ribbon.

Arthur C. Clarke, the writer and scientist who developed the concept of the geostationary satellite, writes in The Time of London about the potential of the space elevator.

"VoIP's gonna be huge." That's what the Register headline says, and the article goes on to say that the traditional telcos are running scared--that telco VoIP offerings are being rolled out because the companies fear that if they don't, VoIP upstarts will steal all their voice business.

I still get massive skepticism when I tell people traditional TV is dead. But every day, there is more and more activity in the IP TV world. Everything that is wrong with traditional TV (lack of variety, repetition, lack of viewpoints, mediocrity) will be offset (but not eliminated) in the emerging IP TV universe, where anyone can be in the television business, and many already are.

Here are some interesting projects and links:

In a perfect example of the Law of Unintended Consequences, a Federal campaign reform law has created confusion about whether or not it applies to blogs, which are normally written by just one or perhaps a handful of people.

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) officials don't even agree on what is correct. Some commissioners think bloggers and Internet campaigning generally are exempt, and others disagree.

As access to content, data, and information becomes ubiquitous, we are beginning to see some uncomfortable anomalies.

The landing of the Jet Blue plane with the crippled nose landing gear is a disquieting example. Jet Blue has always provided satellite TV access on its flights. While the crippled plane flew in circles for three hours, there was plenty of time for the news networks to provide live coverage (People may die a horrible death! Stay tuned!) of the event.

Xerox has the world's worst customer service, largely because they have the world's worst IT infrastructure.

I've been trying for two days to get a toner cartridge for my printer/copier (which is a terrific piece of equipment). But Xerox has a maze of disconnected phone and Web services that don't work with each other or with the company's internal customer tracking and billing systems.

Google is coming under increasing fire for its controversial book scanning project. The company is scanning hundreds of thousands of books from several major university libraries, with the intention of making the searchable and viewable on the Web. Each viewed page will, of course, have Google ads.

The tech world is abuzz with the announcement by Google that they are:

1) Rolling out a national fiber backbone

2) Offering Google Secure Access WiFi services

Throw a rock and you'll hit someone with an opinion, but on SlashDot, which usually has pretty sharp insight into these things, the consensus is as follows:

1) Google's network initiatives will allow it to know even more about its customers, making advertising on Google even more valuable (and it is the advertising that is paying the bills).

Just a year ago, a lot of people, including me, were predicting that the cellular phone companies would implode as Voice over IP and broadband wireless stole customers.

I'm not so sure anymore. What's different is that the cellphone industry has begun offering a broader range of services that are more likely to be popular. As basic cellphone service has become a commodity with cut-throat pricing, it's add-on services that help pay the bills.

A Canadian firm is showing off a hydrogen generator that they are using to increase the efficiency of existing gas and diesel engines. Current internal combustion engines are not very efficient, and the pollution caused by them is due largely to poorly burned fuel--much of it goes right out the tailpipe.

It has long been known that adding small amounts of hydrogen to the gas-air mix increases performance and lowers emissions, but the problem has been how to store hydrogen safely in the car, as well as provide a supply.

This firm has built a hydrogen generator that runs on distilled water (easy to supply) and creates hydrogen on demand, bypassing the storage problem completely. The small box is easily fitted in the engine compartment of existing cars. Independent testing shows that the device does increase efficiency (about 10%) and dramatically reduces emissions.