Technology Futures

This short article from DefenseTech [link no longer available] indicates that the Navy expects to save 24% per year on it's $4 billion dollar telephone bill by switching to Voice over IP phone systems. In round numbers, that's about $1 billion a year, or enough to buy an entire aircraft carrier in five years. Businesses are consistently seeing that much savings or more, and reports of 40% savings are common. Of course, you have to have a reliable broadband connection to switch your business to VoIP.

An Illinois legislator has introduced a bill to outlaw "social networking" sites in Illinois libraries and schools. The bill is extremely broad, and probably will never be passed, but it is an interesting exercise in lawmaking.

Boxlight has released a new, battery-powered LCD projector that uses LEDs instead of hot, expensive incandescent bulbs. A cluster of 10 bright white LEDs projects an image of 150 lumens, compared to 800-1000 for an entry level old style projector. The unit is not suitable for large groups or rooms, but its quiet operation (no fan needed) and small size (1 lb.) could make it a popular choice as a home or office projector, or impromptu small group business meetings.

Most businesses, if they had the opportunity to attract several million new customers with almost no effort, would do so willingly. Not Microsoft. In an almost incomprehensible move, Microsoft wants Mac users who want to buy a copy of Windows to pay $100 more than other Windows users. All new Macs can now easily run Windows alongside the Mac operating system, and many Mac owners are looking forward to being able to run a Windows application occasionally.

In an interesting essay covered in a Wired article, Steve Jobs of Apple has called for an end to DRM (Digital Rights Management) for music. Apple has found that, on average, only 3% of music on a typical iPod uses the Apple FairPlay DRM; the rest is music that has no DRM at all. Typically, this means most people are simply ripping music from CDs and putting it on their iPod.

There are stories and links all over to the news that state legislators in New York may ban iPods in crosswalks. The problem is that people are "...walking into buses. They're walking into one another and it's creating a number of fatalities..." The bill will not specifically target iPods, but will be aimed at any portable device that has users with earphones on that are blocking street sounds.

DXG has a new combo movie/still camera (DXG-506V) with a 5 megapixel image sensor. It also plays MP3s and can take voice memos. The company says it will sell for $149. If the picture quality is good, that's a real bargain. Note that the company's Web site is not well designed. Click on the center area on the bottom (the DXG-505V) to get to a menu. I have yet to find a multi-function device that does everything well, but this product is probably a good hint at the future of cameras.

Greenways, bikeways, and rails to trails projects can be a money maker for a community or region when combined with a long range plan to build open service provider broadband roadways throughout a community. Greenways and trails not only provide recreational opportunities for existing residents, but they also help attract younger people to a community. By combining recreation with economic development, these greenways can be a net generator of revenue for a town or region.

With traffic choking the major metropolitan areas of the country, I think that some smaller cities like Roanoke, Virginia and Scranton, Pennsylvania are poised for growth, if they can adequately address a range of quality of life issues. These smaller cities may have a rush hour, but it usually measured in minutes, not hours, and because they are located outside major urban corridors, it is possible to have a nice house in the woods a few miles from town and still drive to work in fifteen or twenty minutes.

The state of Florida is ready to toss electronic voting machines in the trash and go back to paper. The state plans to use paper ballots, where the voter makes a mark in an oval next to the candidate's name. The ballot is then scanned optically, just like the aptitude tests that have used this system for decades. The paper/optical scanning approach provides an audit trail that can be read manually if necessary but also provides for rapid vote counting by automated equipment.

The back page of the Money section of USA Today (link not on the Web as I write this) has two articles on new gadgets and software. Polaroid, which invented instant printing, has developed inkless color printing that uses special water resistant paper. If it is cheaper than buying inkjet cartridges and has good quality, these little printers designed just for photographs could catch on.

Word has leaked out that Verizon passed on an opportunity to be the exclusive provider of cellular service for the iPhone. Apple's choice of Cingular puzzled some because Cingular is not known for great customer service (note that "customer service" in the cellphone industry is a relative term, but generally Verizon has a better reputation than Cingular).

This very long article on energy delves into a lot of detail, and among the information provided is yet another analysis that indicates the conversion of corn into ethanol uses almost as much energy as it produces. There is a lot of debate about this issue, and I am not an expert, but I suspect that anything that reduces our dependence on foreign sources of crude oil is probably a good thing.

The Roanoke Times has a front page article on a possible challenge to a recent FCC ruling that federalizes cable franchise fees. I could not find a link to it online, but it is an AP report, so it should start showing up in the search engines later today. I have been warning that local government rights were under attack for almost two years. The FCC wants to take away the ability of local government to manage right of way.

It has taken about five years, but the New Media revolution, which I think started in 2002 with the availability of easy to use blogging software, has started to put real pressure on Old Media. This article talks about huge job cuts among the Old Media newspaper and TV giants. It is not so much that Old Media is irrelevant--it is more about the fact that Old Media has stubbornly refused to rethink what it does and how it does it. The stubbornness has led to loss of revenue and job cuts.

Broadband is not the only fuel of the Knowledge Economy. Rural leaders often discount the importance of having good places to eat in smaller towns. Microbusinesses and entrepreneurial start ups do a lot of business over breakfast and lunch, and one of the key quality of life factors that drive relocation decisions for enterpreneurs is the right kinds of restaurants--along with good coffee. Small town restaurants don't have to be fancy, but they have to be clean and comfortable, with excellent food and great service.

For the second year in a row, no American city made the list of the world's "Intelligent Cities," which is compiled by the Intelligent Community Forum. This highlights the longstanding regulatory and leadership problems we have in the U.S. when it comes to telecom. Some state and Federal regulators and legislators still think re-monopolizing the telecom industry (well under way with the re-forming of AT&T) is the answer to the country's long term economic development challenges.

Another study of study of tumors caused by cellphones has produced a conclusion that suggests an increased incidence of a rare kind of tumor called a glioma on the side of the head where the cellphone is used most. The study was done in Finland with people that had the rare kind of tumor, and their cellphone usage was compared to those who did not have tumors. Long term users of cellphones (more than ten years) had a higher risk of developing the tumor.

It is electric power that will be driving the Energy Economy. The President's goal of reducing gasoline use by twenty percent will be achieved by electric cars powered by electricity, rather than by biofuels. Ethanol and other fuel alternatives like fuel cells will contribute, but the first company that delivers a rechargable electric vehicle at a reasonable price (under $15,000) is going to sell a bunch of them. This will have dramatic effects on many other sectors of the economy, and in unpredictable ways.

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Thanks,
Andrew