Exploring the impact of broadband and technology on our lives, our businesses, and our communities.

Will EVDO save cellular?

EVDO, or broadband for cellular telephones, may be the one chance cellular has to beat back the VoIP onslaught, which makes cellular irrelevant if you have access to a wireless Internet signal. Verizon, like most phone companies, likes to bet on technologies that are expensive and thereby easy to control--you can't just go out and start an EVDO business the same way you can start a wireless Internet business.

To use EVDO on your laptop, you have to buy an EVDO card and pay for access to the network (on top of your current cellular bill). But it is very fast, and the big advantage EVDO has right now is that you can get an EVDO signal in a lot more places than WiFi, and it goes further. So EVDO could snatch cellular service back from the grave.

Is there anothe disrupter out there? There almost always is, and it's WiMax. WiMax signals go farther than cellular signals, and WiMax is much faster than EVDO. And almost anyone will be able to finance a WiMax wireless business. EVDO has to capture a large chunk of the market quickly.

Where would I put my money? On WiMax.

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Light posting

I'll be on vacation this week, and posting will be light. Have a great week, and I'll be back the first week of July.

Best regards,

Andrew Cohill

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This is just a reminder that if you prefer to use an RSS reader to keep up with the news, the feed for this site is here.

Why business needs faster broadband

I just had to upload a small ad to a magazine ftp site. The file was about 5 megabytes, which is very small for this sort of thing; a photo heavy full page ad could easily run 100 megabytes or more.

On my "fast" cable modem connection, I had to sit and watch it grind away for nearly three minutes because Adelphia, like all the "broadband" DSL and cable providers, cripples upload speeds. My upload speed is only about 20% as fast as my download speed. These artificial constraints limit the ability of businesses to do client videoconferencing, transfer large files to other workers and clients, prevents medical professionals from looking at X-rays from home, and a host of other business functions that are now routine.

Meanwhile, in the February, 2005 issue of Broadband Properties, Marilyn O'Connor, the Verizon Senior VP for Broadband, stated that copper systems are "fine" and that it "serves what the market needs are."

Verizon is sadly out of touch.

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Are phone companies wrecking America?

Are the phone companies wrecking the U.S. economy by spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy legislation that prevents America's businesses from competing in the global marketplace?

James Carlini, writing in ePrairie, says yes. He wonders why the phone companies are putting millions into the pockets of lobbyists while simultaneously claiming they can't afford to upgrade their networks. He also points out that is not just the phone companies. The cable companies have also been pouring millions into the pockets of politicians to try to get laws passed that force businesses and communities to use only the old, copper-based telephone and cable systems, while the rest of the world is going straight to fiber.

Carlini says there is something wrong when twice as many South Koreans have broadband than U.S. citizens. Worse yet, Americans are paying, on average, about twice as much as South Koreans, and getting inferior connections that are slower. So we pay more and get less.

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Orlando pulls plug on free WiFi

The City of Orlando has pulled the plug on its ambitious free WiFi program. It was costing the city almost $2000/month, and only an average of 27 people a day were using the system. There are several things we can learn from this.

  • As I've been saying for a long time, start small and make sure something works before pouring a lot of money into it. Orlando should have tried a few hotspots and kept the cost down to a few hundred dollars. If they had done this and monitored usage, it would have been a clue that usage was not what they expected.
  • IT folks love big projects because it allows them to justify bigger budgets and more staff. Higher level managers (read elected officials, in this case) often allow themselves to get railroaded by their IT staff as IT folks throw around a lot of buzzwords and make everyone feel ignorant and behind the times. I don't know if this happened in this case, but think about the Philadelphia project, led by the city's IT director, that wanted to build a massive, multi-million dollar citywide WiFi system. It never made much sense to me--I don't ever recommend spending that much money in advance of understanding the market direction. And the market direction for WiFi has always been muddy.
  • Beware of vendors promising big benefits. Vendors love muni projects because they can usually get muni IT staffs excited about buying a lot of stuff, and it is usually then easy to wow city leaders who are feeling some pressure to "do something about broadband." WiFi is only part of a comprehensive approach to broadband. Despite what vendors say, it does not solve the broadband "problem."

So what should communities be doing about WiFi? I think that muni WiFi makes sense only when you understand what the bigger community goals are. Are you trying to get tourists to pull off the interstate and visit your community? Then a free WiFi hotspot at the tourist center makes a lot of sense, and is easily justified.

Are you trying to help with Digital Divide issues in your community? Then offering WiFi at the library, where people can bring a laptop and work quietly may make sense. Are you trying to attract more youth and foot traffic downtown? Then a few public hotspots with convenient outdoor access (e.g. a downtown park) may make sense.

There may be neighborhoods and communities where a WiFi blanket over a larger area is justified, but you need to know what you want to accomplish first, and be able to place the technology investment in a larger context, like a Technology Master Plan.

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South Korea builds a Digital Media City

I write a lot about what is happening in other countries, but some of my citations are just statistics--useful to a point, but sometimes you want more detail. Here is some great information about a single project in South Korea that probably dwarfs many other technology park efforts in the United States, and an indicator of how serious some other countries are about passing the U.S. in technology.

This Digital Media City project appears to be well-focused and well-financed, and is not just a local effort--read down the page to see the "Rental Housing for Foreigners." The project is planning from the ground up to attract overseas investment, and to make sure the right kind of housing is available. How about business parks in your area? Does your plan address the needs of international firms to this degree?

This is the competition.

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Google to take on PayPal

Google apparently plans to take on PayPal, which is owned by eBay. PayPal is the only online payment system that has been successful, despite dozens of schemes, some of which were very well-funded. PayPal has been successful in part because it is relatively simple--it bypasses credit cards completely and debits or credits your checking account. It is fast and simple, and the online reporting of transactions is excellent. It's about the same cost as credit cards; the company charges 2.9% of each transaction (the person or company receiving the funds pays).

Despite Google's grandiose slogan, "Do nothing evil," the company has hewn a pretty straight path to try to capture every possible kind of online interaction, to the extent that it makes Microsoft look like a minor league player. One difference between the two companies is that Google seems to be trying harder to deliver quality with version 1 of new services, whereas Microsoft's strategy was to throw something fairly buggy out there and get users to pay for quality control by releasing frequent "upgrades."

Google's relentless quest to remember everything you have ever done online (my main objection to the company) seems likely to spill over into this new payment system, where Google will maintain a dossier of every purchase you have ever made--a nongovernmental entity with more information about you than the government. They'll link purchase information to the emails you have sent via their free GMail service. They'll tie purchases to Google searches you have made. Ads will show up based on maps you have looked at on their Map service.

Google is making a fortune customizing ads, but they are amassing too much information about us.

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Good-bye to magnetic tape

Even before I had a transistor radio as a kid, I got a small reel to reel tape recorder. It had the old 4" reels, used 1/4" tape, and recorded a single channel of mono sound. It was fun to use, and was my first technology gadget. We've made huge strides in recording technology since then, and the ultimate in magnetic tape technology was the analog portable video recorder. These devices, which are really only about fifteen years old yet seem quaint, were and still are, in my opinion, some of the most sophisticated mechanical devices ever designed. The recording technology was extremely complex but actually worked very well. By comparison, the newer generation of digital video cameras are much simpler (from the perspective of what you actually record on the tape).

I wrote recently about disposable video cameras. I think they are likely to be popular, but after last night, I've decided that magnetic tape is about to go the way of dodo bird and the VCR. I finally got around to trying the video mode on my Canon A85 digital camera. It turned out to be terrific. I've been playing with digital video since the dark ages (1995), and previous generations of video produced by digital cameras was pretty bad stuff--tiny pictures, very fuzzy images, and muffled sound. But the short clips I made last night were nothing like that. The images are crisp in a medium-sized window, and can be blown up for an audience without turning them into complete fuzz. The sound is superb, and I was pleased but not really suprised when I plugged my camera into my Mac and iPhoto happily grabbed the movies, dropped them into iPhoto, and I could immediately double-click and play them.

Oh, and there is one more thing. Now I know why Apple came out with the photo edition of the iPod--it was never really about still pictures--it's about video. If you run out of memory while taking videos, it's not always convenient to lug around a laptop (like a day at DisneyWorld) and transfer the movies. But with a tiny iPod Photo in your purse or backpack, you plug the camera in, squirt the videos on to the iPod, and keep shooting. On a 60 gig iPod, you could store more than two hours of video--more than enough for most things.

In short, taking movies on my digital still camera beats the heck out of using the digital video recorder and all the hassle of digital tape.

Are there any downsides? A thirty second video clip uses about 15 meg of memory, so you need to invest in a good-sized memory card for the camera. A 512 meg memory card will record 17 minutes of video--plenty for the average family event, and since it is quick and easy to move it to your computer, capacity is not really an issue. You could always keep a spare memory card in your camera bag. You can buy a 512 meg memory card for under $50, so the price of a few tapes pays for the card, which you can re-use, unlike tape.

The other thing I realized is that with the high capacity of tape (1 hour +), you tend to turn the camera and leave it running, which usually results in the typical home movie--long stretches of pretty dull stuff punctuated with a few moments of genuine humor or a real "Kodak" moment. With the shorter capacity of solid state memory, you tend to be a little more focused on capturing the good stuff.

Next step: making good use of iMovie, the free video editing software that comes with Macs. Video editing is a real chore, but much of that was because it is extremely tedious to edit down long stretches of video tape. With a bunch of short all-digital movie clips, it's a entirely different story. It's the difference between starting with an hour of video (using tape) and five minutes of video (using a digital camera). With just five minutes of video, it's now easy to add some titles, a little narration, and some background music. And with iMovie's one click burn to DVD capability, with just a little effort you've got an archival copy and/or something to send to the grandparents.

I've been writing about personal applications for this, but the business potential is enormous. Step one: economic developers ought to be putting together some short courses for small businesses to show them how easy it is to produce short videos for their Web sites. What used to be costly and expensive is made for small business efforts.

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America still has an edge in the Global Economy

Although I think U.S. communities have to work much harder on their economic development because of overseas competition that simply did not exist even fifteen years ago, we still have a valuable edge. This blog reprints an op-ed piece on some of the problems businesspeople in India face. Red tape, bureaucratic foot-dragging, costly permits, intrusive rent control, and antiquated labor laws make it very difficult to start a business in India.

By contrast, it is dead simple in the United States, and usually just involves paying a small fee to register your business with the local government. I don't think it is coincidental that the low barriers to starting a business track nicely with the fact that as many as 90% of new jobs in the U.S. are created by small businesses.

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