Technology Futures

Even before I had a transistor radio as a kid, I got a small reel to reel tape recorder. It had the old 4" reels, used 1/4" tape, and recorded a single channel of mono sound. It was fun to use, and was my first technology gadget. We've made huge strides in recording technology since then, and the ultimate in magnetic tape technology was the analog portable video recorder. These devices, which are really only about fifteen years old yet seem quaint, were and still are, in my opinion, some of the most sophisticated mechanical devices ever designed. The recording technology was extremely complex but actually worked very well. By comparison, the newer generation of digital video cameras are much simpler (from the perspective of what you actually record on the tape).

I wrote recently about disposable video cameras. I think they are likely to be popular, but after last night, I've decided that magnetic tape is about to go the way of dodo bird and the VCR. I finally got around to trying the video mode on my Canon A85 digital camera. It turned out to be terrific. I've been playing with digital video since the dark ages (1995), and previous generations of video produced by digital cameras was pretty bad stuff--tiny pictures, very fuzzy images, and muffled sound. But the short clips I made last night were nothing like that. The images are crisp in a medium-sized window, and can be blown up for an audience without turning them into complete fuzz. The sound is superb, and I was pleased but not really suprised when I plugged my camera into my Mac and iPhoto happily grabbed the movies, dropped them into iPhoto, and I could immediately double-click and play them.

Oh, and there is one more thing. Now I know why Apple came out with the photo edition of the iPod--it was never really about still pictures--it's about video. If you run out of memory while taking videos, it's not always convenient to lug around a laptop (like a day at DisneyWorld) and transfer the movies. But with a tiny iPod Photo in your purse or backpack, you plug the camera in, squirt the videos on to the iPod, and keep shooting. On a 60 gig iPod, you could store more than two hours of video--more than enough for most things.

In short, taking movies on my digital still camera beats the heck out of using the digital video recorder and all the hassle of digital tape.

Are there any downsides? A thirty second video clip uses about 15 meg of memory, so you need to invest in a good-sized memory card for the camera. A 512 meg memory card will record 17 minutes of video--plenty for the average family event, and since it is quick and easy to move it to your computer, capacity is not really an issue. You could always keep a spare memory card in your camera bag. You can buy a 512 meg memory card for under $50, so the price of a few tapes pays for the card, which you can re-use, unlike tape.

The other thing I realized is that with the high capacity of tape (1 hour +), you tend to turn the camera and leave it running, which usually results in the typical home movie--long stretches of pretty dull stuff punctuated with a few moments of genuine humor or a real "Kodak" moment. With the shorter capacity of solid state memory, you tend to be a little more focused on capturing the good stuff.

Next step: making good use of iMovie, the free video editing software that comes with Macs. Video editing is a real chore, but much of that was because it is extremely tedious to edit down long stretches of video tape. With a bunch of short all-digital movie clips, it's a entirely different story. It's the difference between starting with an hour of video (using tape) and five minutes of video (using a digital camera). With just five minutes of video, it's now easy to add some titles, a little narration, and some background music. And with iMovie's one click burn to DVD capability, with just a little effort you've got an archival copy and/or something to send to the grandparents.

I've been writing about personal applications for this, but the business potential is enormous. Step one: economic developers ought to be putting together some short courses for small businesses to show them how easy it is to produce short videos for their Web sites. What used to be costly and expensive is made for small business efforts.

The Detroit News has a report on a Michigan legislator who has introduced a bill to ban local governments in the state from getting involved in wireless efforts. The article does not shed any light on what the motivation behind the bill is, but the wireless project in Oakland County which is described in the article is worth reviewing.

The article cites "experts" who all agreed that it would cost $50 to $100 million to provide wireless throughout Oakland county. There are several things wrong here. First, it is very hard for me to take seriously the estimate of an "expert" whose figures may be off by 100% or $50 million. That does not sound like an expert to me. If the county, which is considering the wireless initiative, can't get better numbers than that, it hurts their efforts by publicizing such vague estimates.

I have a hard time with "big bang" projects, where the whole county just wakes up one day and has broadband wireless (hence the big bang). Typically, a public sector or private sector project ought to start with a modest investment and expand incrementally as demand builds, using revenue to finance expansion. We have very few examples (if any) of wide area wireless networks and the expected take rate (how many people sign up for the service and how fast). Spending even the low figure of $50 million in advance of understanding the market is risky. Wireless, much more than fiber, ought to grow in response to market demand.

Using this kind of vague estimating, most communities would never have been able to get public water, sewer, or good roads. Someone would have said, "It will cost $100 million to run water to every home in the county, and there's no way we can afford that." Of course not, but no county in the country ever tried to run water to every home in a year or two.

Oakland County should get some deserved credit for thinking about addressing broadband needs systematically, but a go-slow approach may yield more benefits with less risk and private sector investment. There are a lot of good community projects in Michigan, and places like Grand Rapids and the work of visionaries like Ray Hoag and Dirk Koenig have been leading the way for years. This anit-muni bill should die a quick death, or the communities of Michigan will lose, as will the state, as businesses head elsewhere.

Regular readers may have noticed this site has been a target of spambots over the past week, which have been posting comments for online poker. Until I have a chance to check out some anti-spam software, I have turned moderation on for comments. This means you can still post comments, but they won't appear immediately. Thanks for your understanding.

Andrew

It's hard to believe, but Microsoft's mainland China Web site scolds you if you type the words "freedom" or "democracy," or the phrase "human rights." The U.S. software company hosts a large Web site that provides free blogs to Chinese users, and software on the site monitors everything that is typed in. Offending words and phrases cause a window to pop up with a warning that the posting may be deleted if the user does not remove the "offending" words.

Microsoft says it has to adapt to local customs, but cooperating with a repressive government that prohibits free speech of any kind is a bit of stretch.