Wired has an interesting article on the slow and steady approach Microsoft has taken with the Xbox. Wired describes the huge sales numbers for the Xbox over the Black Friday weekend, noting that it can't just be gamers buying a six year old design.
What has happened is that Microsoft has been able to sign a lot of content agreements so that you can use the Xbox to replace your TV, with lots of on-demand video from a wide variety of content providers.
The rest of the article, though, tries to shed some light on what Apple may or may not be doing without really providing any clarity. Apple is famously successful at keeping secrets, so no one really has any idea what one of Steve Jobs' last comments, about Apple's TV strategy, really means: "I finally cracked it."
Rumors have been flying around for months that Apple intends to roll out a "smart TV," as opposed to the Microsoft "smart box" strategy a la the Xbox. As I have maintained for years, whatever the hardware is, if you don't have content, customers won't buy.
I'm glad Xbox is doing well. Apple, Google, and others trying to break into the "TV" market need good, strong competition. The losers in this epic battle are going to be the cable companies, because analog TV is dead, dead, dead. And the cable firms have no strategy for making the transition to on-demand video. The TV market is cracking up before our eyes. Top notch shows like the CBS "Person of Interest" can be watched on demand on the CBS Web site. So why does CBS need to license its content to the cable companies?
Even IP TV is dying before it even catches on. The original concept of IP TV was (is) to emulate the channel line up packages of analog cable TV with a digital set top box that lets you "tune" (select) from a traditional channel line up. But why bother with that at all if the same content is available on demand, without the bother, complexity, and cost of a set top box? The simplicity and reduced cost of on-demand video versus the more expensive IP TV/set top box solution suggests IP TV is not going to be around long.
Modern broadband networks need fast, cheap bandwidth so that all forms of on-demand video can be supported, including the emerging heavy use of live HD video during the daytime by the business community.