Technology Futures

I wrote yesterday about Apple's excellent and free videoconferencing software. Last night, I saw a Microsoft ad touting the advantages of their LiveMeeting product. It's interesting to look at the two very different approaches to the same market space.

Google's popular Gmail has already required a security patch that allowed a third party to easily log in and gain full access to one's mail.

I'm amazed at people's willingness to hand over all their private and/or business correspondance to a third party that can do anything it likes with it. Yes, they have a privacy policy, but they also reserve the right to change the privacy policy without your permission.

A flurry of articles like this are talking about ADSL2+, a new standard for DSL service over old copper phone lines. ADSL2+ is not only too long as an acronym, it offers too little, and ironically increases the digital divide, in my opinion.

In short, the new service will provide increased bandwidth over copper phone lines, but only if you are about one and a half miles from the telephone switch, as opposed to the three miles of the current DSL offering. ADSL2+ also will go further than the old three mile limitation, but only at low data rates--about four times dial up speeds.

So a few subscribers may get DSL service where they could not before, but only at much slower than "normal" DSL. And a few subscribers may get much faster service, but only if they are very close to the telephone central office. And it's important to remember that the distance rule of thumb is not line of sight, but cable feet; not only that, the ability to deliver DSL is highly dependent on the quality of the copper cable. In many rural areas, DSL just does not work on older cable plant, even inside the distance limits.

It's hard to see how this benefits anyone, even the phone company. It further segments their own customer base and prevents them from offering the same set of services to all customers. For example, some ADSL2+ customers might be able to get a single channel of high quality high defintion TV (HDTV), but others will not. How you market that is a mystery to me--"HDTV--it might work in your area, but maybe not!"

The phone companies are still very fixated on market share, rather than on offering good services in a competitive marketplace. So in their minds, anything that continues to allow them to lock customers up over copper is good, even if it's bad. Does that make sense to you? It doesn't to me either, but that's their strategy until they can figure out a way to justify running fiber to neighborhood.

CNet has an article on the "plunging" prices of videophone systems, heralding a drop to under $500.

These are hybrid phone systems that wed old phone system technology with video, in an attempt to create a bridge between conventional phone systems and Internet-based protocols.

In the Northern Neck of Virginia, broadband is being viewed (appropriately) as a critical economic development issue.

from a mailing list....

GROUP FORMS TO EDUCATE CONSUMERS AS FIBER-LINKED COMMUNITIES PROLIFERATE

With the number of communities linked with fiber-to-the-home rapidly growing, a new coalition has been formed to educate consumers about the benefits of optical access networks. Max R. Kipfer, founder and president of Fiber Optic Communities of the United States (FOCUS), said the group would "unite fiber-optic communities from urban, rural, and suburban settings with the aim of propelling America into the next generation of communication."

During a press briefing in Washington, FOCUS General Counsel Lawrence Freedman said one of the group's missions would be to promote the sharing of information and dissemination of strategies among communities seeking to connect homes and businesses with fiber-optic networks. "All of the best technology will be of no use if there's not the transactional structure and operative environment" that's needed, he said.

The press briefing featured presentations on fiber-optic deployments from representatives of the Utah Telecommunications Open Infrastructure Agency (UTOPIA), a government effort to build a fiber-optic network covering 14 towns in Utah; Jackson (Tenn.) Energy Authority, which has built a fiber-optic network; and Brambleton Group LLC, which is installing fiber optics in its development in Loudoun County, Va.

Link Hoewing, assistant vice president at Verizon Communications, Inc., highlighted his company's plans to install fiber to the home in 100 central offices in nine states, passing 1 million homes, by year-end, and to pass 3 million by the end of 2005. Verizon has been expediting its deployment after receiving favorable regulatory decisions on fiber-related issues, he added.

Mike Render, president of Render Vanderslice and Associates, said fiber-to-the-home deployments had "taken off in the last six months," in large part due to Verizon but also due to several new "wired communities." There are now 217 communities in the U.S.

Apple has upped the ante in the portable music player world. With a half dozen other hard drive-based models trying to steal market share from Apple, the world's premiere technology innovation firm has released two new iPods today that will display digital photos on a color screen.

About this time last year, Virginia Tech, right here in rural Appalachia, made world news with a dirt cheap supercomputer that ranked number 3 in the world in terms of speed and processing power.

The university did some thinking out of the box and discarded the conventional approach to building supercomputers (typically using a lot of custom hardware). Instead they bought 1100 off the shelf Macintoshes, wired them together with more off the shelf hardware, and wrote a small amount of software to turn the Macs into a monster supercomputer.

All through the nineties, and especially during the dot-com silliness, hundreds if not thousands of companies talked about the "killer app." Usually those who claimed they had it were making some thinly veiled sales pitch for some proprietary piece of software that they believed would make them kings of the world.

I argued, at the time, that the killer app was email, and I still think I was right. Email is one of two things that virtually everyone does online. The other is search, and of course, the founders of Google, if not kings of the world, are now insanely rich.

Outsourcing of U.S. jobs to other countries, depending upon who you believe, is wrecking the country or no big deal. Based on data developed by business experts like Peter Drucker, who says three U.S. jobs are created for everyone that is outsourced, I'm inclined to believe that it is not a major concern as a national issue.

Here is an interesting article in the New York Times (registration required) about an experiment by Con Ed, the big New York City area electric provider, with Broadband Over Powerlines (BPL).

The BPL trial is not particularly noteworthy. I'll bet most of the electric utilities in the country have bought some equipment and are playing around with it. No, what's worth mentioning is that Con Ed has said, "Our aim is definitely not to become an Internet service provider."

Yes! That's exactly right. Con Ed has partnered with EarthLink, which will be the ISP. Con Ed is simply going to provide the transport layer, and the electric company is going to do what it does best, which is to go around and bury cable. They are doing what they know how to do, and will make a buck leasing their transport system (the electric lines) to someone else, who knows the Internet access business. Even better, Earthlink has not been trying to capture the content side of the broadband business, which the cable and telephone companies would like to do. Aside from a modest portal site, EarthLink is also sticking to the knitting.

If BPL becomes a force in the marketplace (and the jury is still out on the economics of that because of the amount of equipment needed to retrofit an electric service area), it will most likely succeed if the electric utilities do what Con Ed is doing--provide the transport layer and partner with others on access and service.

And thre is a lesson there for communities that want to jumpstart broadband--provide the transport layer and let the private sector deliver the access and services. Pay for the community investment by being the "carrier's carrier" and have just a few bulk customers (the access and service providers). It's a nice, clean business model that does not compete with the private sector and does not re-monopolize the marketplace (by creating a new public monopoly for broadband).

It got chilly all of a sudden; someone was pulling the covers off the bed. I sat up groggily and looked around. My wife was still sound asleep on the other side of the bed; it was not likely that she would notice anyway, since she tends to sleep with the covers half off in the first place. It was the whirring noise that finally caught my attention; Marvin, the robo-butler, was down at the bottom of the bed, slowly and methodically dragging the comforter off. He seemed to be getting a bit confused, because the covers had flopped over top of him, covering his optical sensors.

I yanked them away from him and tried to go back to sleep, but even more commotion started up downstairs. It sounded like every appliance in the house had come on, all at once. Imagine, if you will, the coffee grinder, the disposal, the dishwasher, the vacuum cleaner, the dryer, and the washing machine, all going at once. I was waking up now, and threw my legs over the side of the bed, stepped into my slippers and housecoat, and headed downstairs. Marvin trailed behind me, muttering under his breath, his little wheel motors whining. I looked longingly at my wife, who was still sound asleep.

After I shut everything off, and got the baby out of her crib (she thought it was hilarious to have the vacuum cleaner driving in circles on her rug at 6:30 in the morning), I poured a cup of java from the Coff-o-Mat and sat down for a little chat with Harry, the house computer.

"Harry, what the heck is going on?"

"Well, Dave, you wouldn't get up this morning when I tried to wake you."

"Harry, it's Saturday morning and we were out late last night. You knew that, because you made me review the chore list at half past twelve."

"I guess I just forgot, Dave. It won't happen again."

"Alright, I'll forget about it. Now what's for breakfast?"

"Well, Dave, how about two scrambled eggs and a piece of whole wheat toast?"

"Sounds good."

"Coming right up, Dave."

I harrumphed, then started to get up to go look for the paper.

Here's an interesting note about an industry drive to make our homes "smart."

I wrote an article fifteen years ago about this, which I've posted in a separate item. The IT industry is drving the smart home phenomenon in part because it's "cool," and in part because it will increase profits. A very small part of smart home stuff will actually make things more convenient, but I remain skeptical.

This story says the FCC is interested in regulating VoIP [link no longer available].

BPL has the green light from the FCC. The NewsFactor has an article that goes into more detail. I have to agree with the conclusions the author makes--BPL is not likely to be a major factor for rural communities. Like DSL and cable modems, you have to have a critical mass of customers to justify the expense of the equipment.

As many had predicted (including me), the electronic voting systems are likely to be troublesome, if not downright threats to our country itself.

It is almost unbelievable, but some electronic voting systems in Florida failed within the first hours of use. So much for vendor claims of reliability.

British researchers report that they have developed a new nanomaterial that stores hydrogen at low pressure. Hydrogen storage has been a primary obstacle to the development of a practical hydrogen-powered vehicle. To get enough fuel in a tank that will take a car a reasonable distance, until now, very high pressures were required.

The new nanomaterial absorbs hydrogen at high pressure but then stores the same amount of fuel at a lower pressure.

I'm back from the Rural Telecommunications Congress Annual Conference in Spokane. It's the oldest and one of the only conferences focused on rural issues related to telecommunications and broadband.

Despite the availability of several "iPod killer" products from companies like Dell and Sony, the latest marketing data shows the Apple iPod has captured 92% of the portable MP3 music players with hard drives, and 65% of the overall portable player market.

What the iPod has that the other products don't is superb cross-platform music management/player software (iTunes is available for Windows and the Mac) and superb integration with the iTunes Music Store.

Bob Rowe, from the Montana Public Service Commission, is the first speaker in this session.

Rowe says that states have a role in assisting regional deployment of infrastructure and to coordinate facilities permitting.

Local governments have much potential, and can do training, form buying pools, encourage local government investments in infrastructure, and promote egovernment.

The FCC Section 706 Report from September, 2004 notes that the FCC defines broadband as 200 kilobits/second or faster, that the US still lags the rest of the world in broadband deployment, and that the FCC has a mission to encourage "reasonable and timely deployment."

Bill Gillis, from the Center to Bridge the Digital Divide, is the next speaker. Gillis says that we can learn from "innovation businesses."

He says that an innovation business is knowledge intensive, makes extensive use of technology, is creative and flexible with respect o workforce functions, has a global business perspective, and has entrepreneurial management.

Gillis says that states can facilitate exchange of ideas, help the last 30% of residents that do not have broadband service, can help prepare the workforce for the innovation economy, and provide flexible gap capital. Innovation businesses are driving demand for broadband in rural areas.

The final speaker is Al Hammond, from the Santa Clara School of Law and the Alliance for Public Technology.

Hammond says that large parts of rural America lack adequate broadband services, with smaller towns at a real disavantage--only 5% of towns of 10,000 population or less have broadband.

BPL (Broadband over Power Lines) is getting a lot of interest. There are more electric lines to homes and businesses than phone lines, so BPL potentially can be widely deployed. At least 5 companies are manufacturing BPL equipment.

25 million homes have no cable modem or DSL service, and satellite broadband is becoming more affordable, with Wild Blue, a new statellite company, will be offering Internet access for about $50/month. TV programming will also be available, unlike some other satellite broadband systems.