By all reports, the iPhone is already a success. Apple has not released complete sales numbers, but analysts who were predicting initial sales of 200,000 phones are estimating that between 500,000 and 700,000 phones have been sold. Virtually every Apple and AT&T store sold out of initial supplies in three days, and online orders are now being filled and delivered in as little as two days.
The biggest complaints have not been with the phone itself, but with AT&T. Activation has been slow and/or clumsy for some users, and the AT&T network has not been coping well with the influx of new users, most of whom have apparently purchased the data service. And why wouldn't you? The most appealing features of the phone, from user reports, are the email and Web browser software.
Users are saying it is the first phone they have owned that actually has usable (as in regular use) email and Web access. AT&T is reportedly investing large sums into upgrading their network, so cellphone-related problems are likely to diminish over time. It is a shrewd move for AT&T is the company can provide decent service, as the phone give AT&T something that no other cellular provider has. It is likely that Apple will eventually do deals with other providers, but AT&T probably has at least a two year exclusive deal.
Speculation is rampant about what is next, including an iPod with the touch screen of the iPhone, Internet access via WiFi, but no phone function. This would be very popular, and probably could be sold for under $400, or even around $300. The current iPhone does not have the capability to do VoIP (Voice over IP) phone calls, but all the technology is already in place to provide that. It's just a matter of Apple turning it on. It is easy to imagine an iPhone that only does VoIP (i.e. no cellular service), along with email and Web access.
That iPhone--VoIP enabled--at an attractive price, could upend the entire cellular industry. As more places offer some kind of WiFi service, it would become easier and easier to replace cellular with VoIP on the iPhone, and as younger people rely more and more on IP services like text messaging and chat, voice calls are becoming less important.
Apple, once again, has introduced a disruptor device. Look for lots of imitations in the months to come, creating competition and lower prices.