Berge Ayvasian, a VP at the Yankee Group, a technology forecasting group, gave the morning keynote. Ayvasian had some interesting data: the Yankee Group projects that the number of households served by broadband will double over the next three years, from about 30 million to 60 million. Households served by community broadband projects are expected to grow by more than 600%, much faster than DSL growth (100%) or cable modem (75%). Cable is growing slowest because cable companies already have much of the market locked. up. Cable will still have at least twice as many household as DSL.
Ayvasian described the current duopoly problem correctly. The telcos and the cable companies that form the dupolopy in most communities believe they can make more money from existing customers, rather than by increasing the number of customers served. So they have little incentive to expand service coverage. But that businsess mode leaves communities at the mercy of the duopoly.
Ayvasian also mentioned a start up community effort in Fontana, California, where local leaders have declared, "Broadband is not an expense, it is an investment in the future." The Fontana project will use an open access, wholesale service model (the right approach).
Ayvasian also mentioned that other countries are moving fast. Ethiopia intends to have broadband available throughout the country by 2008, so I have a new slogan for communities: "Our town--almost as good as Ethiopia!"
In summary, Ayvasian proposed several principles that he said should drive broadband.