January tech doldrums

We are in the January technology doldrums. New product announcements won't start to appear for another couple of weeks, and communities with projects underway need a couple of weeks back at work before moving forward. 2007 predictions articles are popular, with most of them listing the "top ten" trends for the year, or something like that. Most of the speculation is pure guessing, and hardly worth commenting on.

I have only two predictions for 2007. First, we will see some communities in the United States roll out true open service provider networks (OSPNs), where any and all service providers are invited to offer services on a level playing field. In those communities, we will see telecommunications costs drop by an average of 15% to 25% across the board, resulting in substantial savings for local governments, which will spend fewer tax dollars on telecom. Businesses will also be big winners in those communities, because money saved on telecom can be used to expand the business and/or create new jobs. And residents will also see savings that can be used for other purposes. Those communities will be particularly attractive to relocating businesses and entrepreneurs, because affordable broadband lowers the cost of doing business. And there is data to back this up. A CMU/MIT study released last year showed that communities with affordable broadband experience a higher rate of economic growth.

My second prediction is that many communities are going to be left behind, largely because local leaders are afraid of broadband and simply choose to wait. The longer that communities put off making investments, the harder it will be to catch up later.

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