This article notes that the number of cellphone calls has declined in the UK for the first time ever, suggesting that the "newbie" period for cellphones is over. Since 1993, I have been able to observe the "newbie" phenomenon firsthand as new systems and technology are embraced by the public, and in fact, it is a well known process that is often ignored, strangely enough, by many in the IT business, who want to believe in endless growth and by extension, endless profits.
It never works that way, and the dot-com bubble was fueled by large numbers of new Internet users and a naive belief that there was a never ending supply of new users. Of course, there was not, and we all know how things turned out. Companies that had built vacuous business plans based on fantasy-based market growth collapsed.
It is good news that cellphone use is starting to level off. Most people that need or want cellphones have them, they work in most places, and the number of cell towers will start to level off. The article notes that text messaging is still picking up as many find that a useful alternative to the phone--less obtrusive and more immediate than leaving a voicemail.
It also means that the etiquette of using cellphones appropriately will start to solidify. With a decreasing number of new users who don't know the rules, we have a better chance of actually using cellphones more sensibly over time.