WiMax vs. EVDO: Who will win?

WiMac boosters like Intel think the new wireless technology is just the thing to solve everyone's broadband connectivity problems. Of course, the firm makes WiMax equipment, so you have to take their marketing hype with a grain of salt.

But WiMax and it's little brother, WiFi, offer a unified wireless model that says, "Let's use the Internet to transport everything, including voice phone calls (via VoIP)."

On the other side of the ring, we have the cellular companies, who know that VoIP and wireless have the potential to make their old-fashioned wireless systems obsolete.

The Internet crowd have technological superiority and simplicity on their side. The wireless Internet model is just a better way of doing things. The problem is that virtually no infrastructure is in place to offer those services, and it will cost billions to get enough service in enough places to create markets of paying customers.

The cellular companies are rolling out enhanced data services like EVDO that are not really as good as a pure Internet model, but the big advantage is that the cellphone firms already have lots of infrastructure in place and a large group of paying customers, some of whom are ready today to pay extra for broadband access.

Who's going to win? This looks like a replay of Betamax and VHS.

If the phone companies get enough early adopters to use their enhanced data services, it will make it even harder for new wireless Internet ventures to gain marketshare. If the phone companies are greedy and overprice data service just because competition is currently limited, many customers will jump ship if more affordable Internet wireless becomes available.

It is too early to tell how this will shake out. WiMax equipment is just now beginning to hit the shelves, but there is a lot of pent up demand for better wireless Internet alternatives. It may take six months to a year to see who is winning. In the meantime, don't spend more on Internet wireless than you have a clear need for in the next six months.

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